Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF project a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 1 around 14–16°C, driven by a passing trough and moderate westerly winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and expected showers further moderate nighttime lows by trapping heat, while historical September baselines average near 13–15°C. This scientific consensus underpins the close market spread, with the 12°C-or-below outcome leading at 42% implied probability amid lingering model uncertainty on exact dew points and wind speeds that could allow deeper cooling. Warmer bins above 22°C reflect the alternative scenario of stronger mixing or delayed frontal passage, though ensemble spread remains modest only two days out.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 1 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 1 de septiembre?
12°C or below 43%
14°C 37%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
12°C or below
43%
13°C
16%
14°C
37%
15°C
30%
16°C
28%
17°C
26%
18°C
2%
19°C
8%
20°C
8%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
10%
12°C or below 43%
14°C 37%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
12°C or below
$49 Vol.
43%
13°C
$0 Vol.
16%
14°C
$0 Vol.
37%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C or higher
$225 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF project a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 1 around 14–16°C, driven by a passing trough and moderate westerly winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and expected showers further moderate nighttime lows by trapping heat, while historical September baselines average near 13–15°C. This scientific consensus underpins the close market spread, with the 12°C-or-below outcome leading at 42% implied probability amid lingering model uncertainty on exact dew points and wind speeds that could allow deeper cooling. Warmer bins above 22°C reflect the alternative scenario of stronger mixing or delayed frontal passage, though ensemble spread remains modest only two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$274Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF project a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 1 around 14–16°C, driven by a passing trough and moderate westerly winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and expected showers further moderate nighttime lows by trapping heat, while historical September baselines average near 13–15°C. This scientific consensus underpins the close market spread, with the 12°C-or-below outcome leading at 42% implied probability amid lingering model uncertainty on exact dew points and wind speeds that could allow deeper cooling. Warmer bins above 22°C reflect the alternative scenario of stronger mixing or delayed frontal passage, though ensemble spread remains modest only two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$274Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF project a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 1 around 14–16°C, driven by a passing trough and moderate westerly winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and expected showers further moderate nighttime lows by trapping heat, while historical September baselines average near 13–15°C. This scientific consensus underpins the close market spread, with the 12°C-or-below outcome leading at 42% implied probability amid lingering model uncertainty on exact dew points and wind speeds that could allow deeper cooling. Warmer bins above 22°C reflect the alternative scenario of stronger mixing or delayed frontal passage, though ensemble spread remains modest only two days out.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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