Oregon's strong Democratic lean and Jeff Merkley's status as a three-term incumbent have anchored trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026, Senate contest. The state has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002, and Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary against limited opposition. Republican nominee David Brock Smith emerged from a fragmented field but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential results have favored Democrats by double digits. Forecasts rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with the market's 97 percent implied probability. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national partisan wave would be required to narrow the gap substantially before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Oregón
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Oregón
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
97%
Republicano
2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
$3,632 Vol.
97%
Republicano
$2,946 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oregon's strong Democratic lean and Jeff Merkley's status as a three-term incumbent have anchored trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026, Senate contest. The state has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002, and Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary against limited opposition. Republican nominee David Brock Smith emerged from a fragmented field but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential results have favored Democrats by double digits. Forecasts rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with the market's 97 percent implied probability. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national partisan wave would be required to narrow the gap substantially before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$6,578Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oregon's strong Democratic lean and Jeff Merkley's status as a three-term incumbent have anchored trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026, Senate contest. The state has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002, and Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary against limited opposition. Republican nominee David Brock Smith emerged from a fragmented field but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential results have favored Democrats by double digits. Forecasts rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with the market's 97 percent implied probability. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national partisan wave would be required to narrow the gap substantially before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$6,578Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oregon's strong Democratic lean and Jeff Merkley's status as a three-term incumbent have anchored trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026, Senate contest. The state has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002, and Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary against limited opposition. Republican nominee David Brock Smith emerged from a fragmented field but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential results have favored Democrats by double digits. Forecasts rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with the market's 97 percent implied probability. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national partisan wave would be required to narrow the gap substantially before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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