Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by roughly 10 points, anchored in rural and agricultural areas of eastern Washington. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s December 2025 retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky as the general-election nominees, preserving the structural advantage for the GOP. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and consistent historical margins in the district. Trader consensus at 91.5% Republican reflects this baseline, with the narrow Democratic price incorporating only remote possibilities such as a late nominee controversy, unusually high turnout shifts, or national conditions that have not materialized in recent cycles. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for reversal absent major unforeseen events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
WA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$41,334 Vol.
$41,334 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
9%
$41,334 Vol.
$41,334 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$20,390 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$20,944 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by roughly 10 points, anchored in rural and agricultural areas of eastern Washington. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s December 2025 retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky as the general-election nominees, preserving the structural advantage for the GOP. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and consistent historical margins in the district. Trader consensus at 91.5% Republican reflects this baseline, with the narrow Democratic price incorporating only remote possibilities such as a late nominee controversy, unusually high turnout shifts, or national conditions that have not materialized in recent cycles. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for reversal absent major unforeseen events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$41,334Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by roughly 10 points, anchored in rural and agricultural areas of eastern Washington. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s December 2025 retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky as the general-election nominees, preserving the structural advantage for the GOP. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and consistent historical margins in the district. Trader consensus at 91.5% Republican reflects this baseline, with the narrow Democratic price incorporating only remote possibilities such as a late nominee controversy, unusually high turnout shifts, or national conditions that have not materialized in recent cycles. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for reversal absent major unforeseen events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$41,334Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by roughly 10 points, anchored in rural and agricultural areas of eastern Washington. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s December 2025 retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary produced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky as the general-election nominees, preserving the structural advantage for the GOP. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and consistent historical margins in the district. Trader consensus at 91.5% Republican reflects this baseline, with the narrow Democratic price incorporating only remote possibilities such as a late nominee controversy, unusually high turnout shifts, or national conditions that have not materialized in recent cycles. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for reversal absent major unforeseen events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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