Republican Mike Kennedy holds a strong position in Utah's 4th Congressional District ahead of the November 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting expectations of a Republican victory margin most likely in the 20-35% range. Court-ordered redistricting preserved the district's Republican tilt, as shown by the 32-point Trump margin in 2024 under the new lines covering western Utah and parts of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Kennedy, previously the representative for the 3rd district, secured the nomination without significant primary opposition following Burgess Owens' retirement announcement. Democrat Jonny Larsen faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Limited polling and the absence of major late-cycle developments keep probabilities distributed across mid-range Republican margins, with only minimal market weight on a Democratic upset. Upcoming candidate events or national midterm dynamics could influence final vote shares within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRepublican 20-25% 25.9%
Republican 25-30% 15%
Republican 30-35% 13%
Republican 15-20% 13%
$11,030 Vol.
$11,030 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican 45%+
2%
Republican 40-45%
3%
Republican 35-40%
9%
Republican 30-35%
13%
Republican 25-30%
15%
Republican 20-25%
26%
Republican 15-20%
13%
Republican 5-15%
3%
Republican 0-5%
6%
Democrat Wins
1%
Republican 20-25% 25.9%
Republican 25-30% 15%
Republican 30-35% 13%
Republican 15-20% 13%
$11,030 Vol.
$11,030 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican 45%+
$2,326 Vol.
2%
Republican 40-45%
$244 Vol.
3%
Republican 35-40%
$3,716 Vol.
9%
Republican 30-35%
$227 Vol.
13%
Republican 25-30%
$1,913 Vol.
15%
Republican 20-25%
$1,539 Vol.
26%
Republican 15-20%
$322 Vol.
13%
Republican 5-15%
$224 Vol.
3%
Republican 0-5%
$354 Vol.
6%
Democrat Wins
$164 Vol.
1%
The 2026 UT-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican Mike Kennedy holds a strong position in Utah's 4th Congressional District ahead of the November 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting expectations of a Republican victory margin most likely in the 20-35% range. Court-ordered redistricting preserved the district's Republican tilt, as shown by the 32-point Trump margin in 2024 under the new lines covering western Utah and parts of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Kennedy, previously the representative for the 3rd district, secured the nomination without significant primary opposition following Burgess Owens' retirement announcement. Democrat Jonny Larsen faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Limited polling and the absence of major late-cycle developments keep probabilities distributed across mid-range Republican margins, with only minimal market weight on a Democratic upset. Upcoming candidate events or national midterm dynamics could influence final vote shares within the resolution window.
The 2026 UT-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
Volumen
$11,030Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The 2026 UT-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican Mike Kennedy holds a strong position in Utah's 4th Congressional District ahead of the November 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting expectations of a Republican victory margin most likely in the 20-35% range. Court-ordered redistricting preserved the district's Republican tilt, as shown by the 32-point Trump margin in 2024 under the new lines covering western Utah and parts of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Kennedy, previously the representative for the 3rd district, secured the nomination without significant primary opposition following Burgess Owens' retirement announcement. Democrat Jonny Larsen faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Limited polling and the absence of major late-cycle developments keep probabilities distributed across mid-range Republican margins, with only minimal market weight on a Democratic upset. Upcoming candidate events or national midterm dynamics could influence final vote shares within the resolution window.
The 2026 UT-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11,030Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Republican Mike Kennedy holds a strong position in Utah's 4th Congressional District ahead of the November 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting expectations of a Republican victory margin most likely in the 20-35% range. Court-ordered redistricting preserved the district's Republican tilt, as shown by the 32-point Trump margin in 2024 under the new lines covering western Utah and parts of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Kennedy, previously the representative for the 3rd district, secured the nomination without significant primary opposition following Burgess Owens' retirement announcement. Democrat Jonny Larsen faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Limited polling and the absence of major late-cycle developments keep probabilities distributed across mid-range Republican margins, with only minimal market weight on a Democratic upset. Upcoming candidate events or national midterm dynamics could influence final vote shares within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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