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icon for Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
Politics·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

icon for Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
Politics·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

$3,726 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$3,726 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for April 30

April 30

$178 Vol.

No

icon for May 15

May 15

$1,436 Vol.

No

icon for May 31

May 31

$2,112 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's 45th Parliament, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals between November 2025 and April 2026, including four Conservatives and one New Democrat. These shifts, driven by cited policy alignments and caucus dynamics, helped deliver the Liberals a majority following April by-elections. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the moves as backroom maneuvers undermining voter mandates, while public polling shows divided Canadian views on the practice. No additional crossings have occurred since the most recent defection in early April, amid a stabilized Liberal majority and focus on ongoing legislative priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,726
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's 45th Parliament, with five opposition MPs joining Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals between November 2025 and April 2026, including four Conservatives and one New Democrat. These shifts, driven by cited policy alignments and caucus dynamics, helped deliver the Liberals a majority following April by-elections. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the moves as backroom maneuvers undermining voter mandates, while public polling shows divided Canadian views on the practice. No additional crossings have occurred since the most recent defection in early April, amid a stabilized Liberal majority and focus on ongoing legislative priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,726
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 0%, followed by "May 15" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is "April 30" at just 0%, with "May 15" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.