Base iPhone 18 released by...?

NEW

Mar 31, 2027

February 28, 2027

$186 Vol.

17%

March 31, 2027

$143 Vol.

74%

April 30, 2027

$62 Vol.

80%

$390 Vol.

February 28, 2027

$186 Vol.

17%

March 31, 2027

$143 Vol.

74%

April 30, 2027

$62 Vol.

80%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Volume

$390

End Date

May 1, 2027

Market Opened

Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Volume

$390

End Date

May 1, 2027

Market Opened

Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?

99%

Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

18%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Base iPhone 18 released by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30, 2027" at 80%, followed by "March 31, 2027" at 74%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Base iPhone 18 released by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Base iPhone 18 released by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Base iPhone 18 released by...?" is "April 30, 2027" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31, 2027" at 74%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Base iPhone 18 released by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Base iPhone 18 released by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Base iPhone 18 released by...?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Base iPhone 18 released by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 80¢ for "April 30, 2027" in the "Base iPhone 18 released by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 80% chance that "April 30, 2027" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 80¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 20¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Base iPhone 18 released by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 30, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Base iPhone 18 released by...?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Base iPhone 18 released by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Base iPhone 18 released by...?

Base iPhone 18 released by...?

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Market Context

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Frequently Asked Questions

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