Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the September 14 Calgary-Shaw by-election as the United Conservative Party nominee, reflecting the riding’s consistent UCP support since its creation and the party’s 13-point margin in the 2023 general election. Derry secured the nomination in late June after defeating city councillor Dan McLean and has received endorsements from Premier Danielle Smith, who highlighted his local business and community background. Alberta NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, nominated around the same time with backing from leader Naheed Nenshi, trails in line with historical patterns for the opposition in southern Calgary. Minor candidates including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal leader John Roggeveen register limited support, with nominations closing August 27 and no major shifts reported in the short campaign period to date.