**Duane “Keffe D” Davis’s ongoing Las Vegas murder trial, which began with jury selection and opening statements in mid-August 2026, has pushed the Yes outcome to a 74% market-implied probability.** Prosecutors are centering their case on Davis’s own repeated, detailed admissions across a 2019 memoir, multiple recorded interviews (including a 2008 law-enforcement session now played for jurors), and earlier statements in which he described himself as the “shot caller” who supplied the .40-caliber Glock and directed the September 1996 drive-by that killed Tupac Shakur. These self-incriminating accounts, long treated as the key break in the long-cold case, form the core of the evidence presented in the first week of testimony. The defense counters that the statements were fabrications intended to sell books or boost Davis’s profile and has labeled the prosecution narrative “fiction,” but traders appear to view the volume and consistency of Davis’s prior words as difficult to overcome. With the roughly month-long trial still in its early stages, upcoming testimony, cross-examination, and any additional recordings or witness accounts tied to the MGM Grand incident and the South Side Compton Crips connection remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment. Historical precedent for high-profile cold-case convictions built on a defendant’s own statements also informs the current trader consensus.