Current forecast models from sources including GFS data show a maximum temperature of 18–19°C for Amsterdam on September 21, driven by a building ridge of high pressure following the eastward passage of a low-pressure system. This setup promotes west to northwest winds of 3–5 m/s, increasing cloud cover that limits daytime solar heating while preventing significant nocturnal cooling. Ensemble consensus places the daily high near the September climatological average, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s leading 19°C outcome at 52% implied probability. Minor upward revisions to 20°C remain possible if afternoon clearing occurs earlier than projected, while cooler outcomes below 18°C would require stronger onshore flow or persistent low cloud not currently favored in the latest runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 21?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 21?
19°C 52%
18°C 21%
20°C 21%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
21%
19°C
52%
20°C
21%
21°C
5%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
2%
19°C 52%
18°C 21%
20°C 21%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$26 Vol.
1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$47 Vol.
2%
17°C
$23 Vol.
5%
18°C
$287 Vol.
21%
19°C
$455 Vol.
52%
20°C
$103 Vol.
21%
21°C
$56 Vol.
5%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS data show a maximum temperature of 18–19°C for Amsterdam on September 21, driven by a building ridge of high pressure following the eastward passage of a low-pressure system. This setup promotes west to northwest winds of 3–5 m/s, increasing cloud cover that limits daytime solar heating while preventing significant nocturnal cooling. Ensemble consensus places the daily high near the September climatological average, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s leading 19°C outcome at 52% implied probability. Minor upward revisions to 20°C remain possible if afternoon clearing occurs earlier than projected, while cooler outcomes below 18°C would require stronger onshore flow or persistent low cloud not currently favored in the latest runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,265End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS data show a maximum temperature of 18–19°C for Amsterdam on September 21, driven by a building ridge of high pressure following the eastward passage of a low-pressure system. This setup promotes west to northwest winds of 3–5 m/s, increasing cloud cover that limits daytime solar heating while preventing significant nocturnal cooling. Ensemble consensus places the daily high near the September climatological average, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s leading 19°C outcome at 52% implied probability. Minor upward revisions to 20°C remain possible if afternoon clearing occurs earlier than projected, while cooler outcomes below 18°C would require stronger onshore flow or persistent low cloud not currently favored in the latest runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,265End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including GFS data show a maximum temperature of 18–19°C for Amsterdam on September 21, driven by a building ridge of high pressure following the eastward passage of a low-pressure system. This setup promotes west to northwest winds of 3–5 m/s, increasing cloud cover that limits daytime solar heating while preventing significant nocturnal cooling. Ensemble consensus places the daily high near the September climatological average, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s leading 19°C outcome at 52% implied probability. Minor upward revisions to 20°C remain possible if afternoon clearing occurs earlier than projected, while cooler outcomes below 18°C would require stronger onshore flow or persistent low cloud not currently favored in the latest runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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