Forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate Beijing's July 6 maximum will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, consistent with mid-summer climatology near 32°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloud cover remain the chief variables that could suppress temperatures toward 29°C or push them slightly higher if skies clear earlier. Recent model runs show modest spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the middle outcomes. Urban heat-island effects and typical July humidity further narrow the realistic distribution, with resolution hinging on the final 48-hour observational updates and any late adjustments to convective initiation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on July 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?
33°C 32%
32°C 29%
31°C 12%
34°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 6, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
12%
32°C
29%
33°C
32%
34°C
11%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 32%
32°C 29%
31°C 12%
34°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 6, 2026
29°C or below
$919 Vol.
1%
30°C
$302 Vol.
4%
31°C
$2,267 Vol.
12%
32°C
$836 Vol.
29%
33°C
$413 Vol.
32%
34°C
$1,217 Vol.
11%
35°C
$986 Vol.
4%
36°C
$892 Vol.
1%
37°C
$886 Vol.
1%
38°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$322 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate Beijing's July 6 maximum will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, consistent with mid-summer climatology near 32°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloud cover remain the chief variables that could suppress temperatures toward 29°C or push them slightly higher if skies clear earlier. Recent model runs show modest spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the middle outcomes. Urban heat-island effects and typical July humidity further narrow the realistic distribution, with resolution hinging on the final 48-hour observational updates and any late adjustments to convective initiation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$9,140End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate Beijing's July 6 maximum will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, consistent with mid-summer climatology near 32°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloud cover remain the chief variables that could suppress temperatures toward 29°C or push them slightly higher if skies clear earlier. Recent model runs show modest spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the middle outcomes. Urban heat-island effects and typical July humidity further narrow the realistic distribution, with resolution hinging on the final 48-hour observational updates and any late adjustments to convective initiation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,140End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate Beijing's July 6 maximum will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, consistent with mid-summer climatology near 32°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloud cover remain the chief variables that could suppress temperatures toward 29°C or push them slightly higher if skies clear earlier. Recent model runs show modest spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the middle outcomes. Urban heat-island effects and typical July humidity further narrow the realistic distribution, with resolution hinging on the final 48-hour observational updates and any late adjustments to convective initiation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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