Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Buenos Aires' Ministro Pistarini International Airport (SAEZ) on May 1, 2026, backed by official observational data from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). Hourly measurements confirmed a midday peak of 24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies, aligning precisely with short-range forecasts from SMN and global models like GFS, which projected 22–25°C amid light northerly winds. This mild autumn reading fits seasonal norms, where May highs average 18–20°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, though improbable post-observation, include rare SMN data revisions from quality control or station metadata discrepancies, with final resolution pending official bulletin release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 1?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 1?
24°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$78,705 Vol.
$78,705 Vol.
May 1, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$78,705 Vol.
$78,705 Vol.
May 1, 2026
16°C or below
$2,042 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,320 Vol.
No
18°C
$6,766 Vol.
No
19°C
$5,648 Vol.
No
20°C
$10,406 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,321 Vol.
No
22°C
$4,913 Vol.
No
23°C
$7,612 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,315 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$9,784 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$10,578 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Buenos Aires' Ministro Pistarini International Airport (SAEZ) on May 1, 2026, backed by official observational data from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). Hourly measurements confirmed a midday peak of 24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies, aligning precisely with short-range forecasts from SMN and global models like GFS, which projected 22–25°C amid light northerly winds. This mild autumn reading fits seasonal norms, where May highs average 18–20°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, though improbable post-observation, include rare SMN data revisions from quality control or station metadata discrepancies, with final resolution pending official bulletin release.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$78,705End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Buenos Aires' Ministro Pistarini International Airport (SAEZ) on May 1, 2026, backed by official observational data from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). Hourly measurements confirmed a midday peak of 24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies, aligning precisely with short-range forecasts from SMN and global models like GFS, which projected 22–25°C amid light northerly winds. This mild autumn reading fits seasonal norms, where May highs average 18–20°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, though improbable post-observation, include rare SMN data revisions from quality control or station metadata discrepancies, with final resolution pending official bulletin release.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$78,705End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Buenos Aires' Ministro Pistarini International Airport (SAEZ) on May 1, 2026, backed by official observational data from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). Hourly measurements confirmed a midday peak of 24°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies, aligning precisely with short-range forecasts from SMN and global models like GFS, which projected 22–25°C amid light northerly winds. This mild autumn reading fits seasonal norms, where May highs average 18–20°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, though improbable post-observation, include rare SMN data revisions from quality control or station metadata discrepancies, with final resolution pending official bulletin release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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