**Trader sentiment for Austin's July 6 high temperature centers on typical midsummer heat modulated by a stable, hot, and dry pattern across central Texas.** Official National Weather Service guidance and recent model consensus point to a high in the mid-to-upper 90s (roughly 94–98 °F), aligning with the closely bunched leading market outcomes around 94–99 °F. Average July highs near 95–96 °F, combined with south-southeast winds of 10–15 mph and minimal cloud cover or rain chances through at least July 7, support this range while limiting upside to triple digits. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in daytime heating, boundary-layer moisture, and any weak afternoon sea-breeze or convective inhibition that could trim the peak by a degree or two versus stronger subsidence allowing a push toward 98–99 °F. Heat-index values are expected to exceed 100 °F due to humidity, but the market resolves strictly on observed air temperature at official stations. With the event less than 24 hours away, the latest NWS forecast updates and any overnight model runs will be the primary drivers of further odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on July 6?
Highest temperature in Austin on July 6?
96-97°F 28%
94-95°F 24%
98-99°F 19%
92-93°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Jul 6, 2026
83°F or below
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
15%
94-95°F
24%
96-97°F
28%
98-99°F
19%
100-101°F
6%
102°F or higher
3%
96-97°F 28%
94-95°F 24%
98-99°F 19%
92-93°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Jul 6, 2026
83°F or below
$180 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$85 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$354 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$21 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$153 Vol.
15%
94-95°F
$206 Vol.
24%
96-97°F
$303 Vol.
28%
98-99°F
$359 Vol.
19%
100-101°F
$221 Vol.
6%
102°F or higher
$295 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Austin's July 6 high temperature centers on typical midsummer heat modulated by a stable, hot, and dry pattern across central Texas.** Official National Weather Service guidance and recent model consensus point to a high in the mid-to-upper 90s (roughly 94–98 °F), aligning with the closely bunched leading market outcomes around 94–99 °F. Average July highs near 95–96 °F, combined with south-southeast winds of 10–15 mph and minimal cloud cover or rain chances through at least July 7, support this range while limiting upside to triple digits.
Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in daytime heating, boundary-layer moisture, and any weak afternoon sea-breeze or convective inhibition that could trim the peak by a degree or two versus stronger subsidence allowing a push toward 98–99 °F. Heat-index values are expected to exceed 100 °F due to humidity, but the market resolves strictly on observed air temperature at official stations. With the event less than 24 hours away, the latest NWS forecast updates and any overnight model runs will be the primary drivers of further odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,147End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Austin's July 6 high temperature centers on typical midsummer heat modulated by a stable, hot, and dry pattern across central Texas.** Official National Weather Service guidance and recent model consensus point to a high in the mid-to-upper 90s (roughly 94–98 °F), aligning with the closely bunched leading market outcomes around 94–99 °F. Average July highs near 95–96 °F, combined with south-southeast winds of 10–15 mph and minimal cloud cover or rain chances through at least July 7, support this range while limiting upside to triple digits.
Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in daytime heating, boundary-layer moisture, and any weak afternoon sea-breeze or convective inhibition that could trim the peak by a degree or two versus stronger subsidence allowing a push toward 98–99 °F. Heat-index values are expected to exceed 100 °F due to humidity, but the market resolves strictly on observed air temperature at official stations. With the event less than 24 hours away, the latest NWS forecast updates and any overnight model runs will be the primary drivers of further odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,147End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Austin's July 6 high temperature centers on typical midsummer heat modulated by a stable, hot, and dry pattern across central Texas.** Official National Weather Service guidance and recent model consensus point to a high in the mid-to-upper 90s (roughly 94–98 °F), aligning with the closely bunched leading market outcomes around 94–99 °F. Average July highs near 95–96 °F, combined with south-southeast winds of 10–15 mph and minimal cloud cover or rain chances through at least July 7, support this range while limiting upside to triple digits. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in daytime heating, boundary-layer moisture, and any weak afternoon sea-breeze or convective inhibition that could trim the peak by a degree or two versus stronger subsidence allowing a push toward 98–99 °F. Heat-index values are expected to exceed 100 °F due to humidity, but the market resolves strictly on observed air temperature at official stations. With the event less than 24 hours away, the latest NWS forecast updates and any overnight model runs will be the primary drivers of further odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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