Recent forecast models for Cape Town point to typical mid-winter conditions on July 3, with daily highs most likely between 14–17°C as a series of cold fronts and a cut-off low sustain cooler-than-average air masses over the Western Cape. This aligns with climatological July averages near 15–17°C and explains the market’s concentration of probability around 15–16°C outcomes. Trader dispersion across 13–19°C brackets reflects inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for the region’s variable steering patterns and orographic influences from Table Mountain, with resolution depending on the final 24-hour maximum reported by official stations. Updated model runs closer to the date will likely tighten these implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on July 3?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 3?
17°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$67,405 Vol.
$67,405 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$67,405 Vol.
$67,405 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
9°C or below
$1,699 Vol.
No
10°C
$3,903 Vol.
No
11°C
$4,073 Vol.
No
12°C
$3,768 Vol.
No
13°C
$5,363 Vol.
No
14°C
$5,455 Vol.
No
15°C
$10,839 Vol.
No
16°C
$17,081 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,758 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$5,772 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$4,695 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models for Cape Town point to typical mid-winter conditions on July 3, with daily highs most likely between 14–17°C as a series of cold fronts and a cut-off low sustain cooler-than-average air masses over the Western Cape. This aligns with climatological July averages near 15–17°C and explains the market’s concentration of probability around 15–16°C outcomes. Trader dispersion across 13–19°C brackets reflects inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for the region’s variable steering patterns and orographic influences from Table Mountain, with resolution depending on the final 24-hour maximum reported by official stations. Updated model runs closer to the date will likely tighten these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$67,405End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models for Cape Town point to typical mid-winter conditions on July 3, with daily highs most likely between 14–17°C as a series of cold fronts and a cut-off low sustain cooler-than-average air masses over the Western Cape. This aligns with climatological July averages near 15–17°C and explains the market’s concentration of probability around 15–16°C outcomes. Trader dispersion across 13–19°C brackets reflects inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for the region’s variable steering patterns and orographic influences from Table Mountain, with resolution depending on the final 24-hour maximum reported by official stations. Updated model runs closer to the date will likely tighten these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67,405End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecast models for Cape Town point to typical mid-winter conditions on July 3, with daily highs most likely between 14–17°C as a series of cold fronts and a cut-off low sustain cooler-than-average air masses over the Western Cape. This aligns with climatological July averages near 15–17°C and explains the market’s concentration of probability around 15–16°C outcomes. Trader dispersion across 13–19°C brackets reflects inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for the region’s variable steering patterns and orographic influences from Table Mountain, with resolution depending on the final 24-hour maximum reported by official stations. Updated model runs closer to the date will likely tighten these implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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