Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a high near 76°F for Chicago on September 6 under northeast flow, with most forecasts clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and cooler readings near Lake Michigan. A frontal passage earlier in the week ended a stretch of mid-90s heat, allowing cooler, drier air to advect southward while partial cloud cover limits daytime heating. Lake-effect moderation and the exact position of the thermal gradient create the narrow spread among the leading 76–81°F bins; small shifts in wind speed, cloud timing, or boundary-layer mixing could push the official high across the 78–79°F or 80–81°F thresholds that currently share the highest implied probabilities. Updated model cycles and the NWS forecast discussion expected later today will likely refine these outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 6?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 6?
78-79°F 37%
76-77°F 35%
74-75°F 30%
72-73°F 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
23%
74-75°F
30%
76-77°F
35%
78-79°F
37%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
7%
90°F or higher
7%
78-79°F 37%
76-77°F 35%
74-75°F 30%
72-73°F 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
23%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
30%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
35%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
37%
80-81°F
$10 Vol.
22%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
7%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
7%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a high near 76°F for Chicago on September 6 under northeast flow, with most forecasts clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and cooler readings near Lake Michigan. A frontal passage earlier in the week ended a stretch of mid-90s heat, allowing cooler, drier air to advect southward while partial cloud cover limits daytime heating. Lake-effect moderation and the exact position of the thermal gradient create the narrow spread among the leading 76–81°F bins; small shifts in wind speed, cloud timing, or boundary-layer mixing could push the official high across the 78–79°F or 80–81°F thresholds that currently share the highest implied probabilities. Updated model cycles and the NWS forecast discussion expected later today will likely refine these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a high near 76°F for Chicago on September 6 under northeast flow, with most forecasts clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and cooler readings near Lake Michigan. A frontal passage earlier in the week ended a stretch of mid-90s heat, allowing cooler, drier air to advect southward while partial cloud cover limits daytime heating. Lake-effect moderation and the exact position of the thermal gradient create the narrow spread among the leading 76–81°F bins; small shifts in wind speed, cloud timing, or boundary-layer mixing could push the official high across the 78–79°F or 80–81°F thresholds that currently share the highest implied probabilities. Updated model cycles and the NWS forecast discussion expected later today will likely refine these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a high near 76°F for Chicago on September 6 under northeast flow, with most forecasts clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and cooler readings near Lake Michigan. A frontal passage earlier in the week ended a stretch of mid-90s heat, allowing cooler, drier air to advect southward while partial cloud cover limits daytime heating. Lake-effect moderation and the exact position of the thermal gradient create the narrow spread among the leading 76–81°F bins; small shifts in wind speed, cloud timing, or boundary-layer mixing could push the official high across the 78–79°F or 80–81°F thresholds that currently share the highest implied probabilities. Updated model cycles and the NWS forecast discussion expected later today will likely refine these outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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