Current short-range model consensus from sources including the Met Office, Meteoprog, and European ensembles points to a maximum temperature of 21–22 °C in Amsterdam on September 4, driven by a mild southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the climatological average high of ~20.4 °C for the date and the absence of any strong ridge or cold advection. Market-implied odds, with 22 °C at 43.5 % and 21 °C at 32 %, reflect traders weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs that show little spread around this narrow range, while lower-probability tails account for possible model shifts in timing of frontal passages or slight warming under clearer breaks. Updated guidance through September 3 will be the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
22°C 44%
21°C 32%
18°C 16%
20°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
16%
19°C
7%
20°C
13%
21°C
32%
22°C
44%
23°C
13%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 44%
21°C 32%
18°C 16%
20°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
16%
19°C
$20 Vol.
7%
20°C
$0 Vol.
13%
21°C
$20 Vol.
32%
22°C
$80 Vol.
44%
23°C
$16 Vol.
13%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model consensus from sources including the Met Office, Meteoprog, and European ensembles points to a maximum temperature of 21–22 °C in Amsterdam on September 4, driven by a mild southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the climatological average high of ~20.4 °C for the date and the absence of any strong ridge or cold advection. Market-implied odds, with 22 °C at 43.5 % and 21 °C at 32 %, reflect traders weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs that show little spread around this narrow range, while lower-probability tails account for possible model shifts in timing of frontal passages or slight warming under clearer breaks. Updated guidance through September 3 will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$136End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model consensus from sources including the Met Office, Meteoprog, and European ensembles points to a maximum temperature of 21–22 °C in Amsterdam on September 4, driven by a mild southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the climatological average high of ~20.4 °C for the date and the absence of any strong ridge or cold advection. Market-implied odds, with 22 °C at 43.5 % and 21 °C at 32 %, reflect traders weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs that show little spread around this narrow range, while lower-probability tails account for possible model shifts in timing of frontal passages or slight warming under clearer breaks. Updated guidance through September 3 will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$136End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range model consensus from sources including the Met Office, Meteoprog, and European ensembles points to a maximum temperature of 21–22 °C in Amsterdam on September 4, driven by a mild southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These conditions align with the climatological average high of ~20.4 °C for the date and the absence of any strong ridge or cold advection. Market-implied odds, with 22 °C at 43.5 % and 21 °C at 32 %, reflect traders weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs that show little spread around this narrow range, while lower-probability tails account for possible model shifts in timing of frontal passages or slight warming under clearer breaks. Updated guidance through September 3 will be the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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