Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies have positioned Madrid for peak temperatures of 38–39°C on September 4, with AEMET and ensemble models showing afternoon maxima near 38°C under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s leading 39°C (55%) and 40°C (22.5%) outcomes, as current runs indicate limited diurnal cooling and no significant frontal passage. Historical September extremes near 38–39°C provide precedent, while model consensus remains tight ahead of the final 48-hour updates. Any late intensification of the ridge or slight wind shift could nudge readings toward 40°C, but stable conditions favor the 38–39°C range as the most probable resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
39°C 55%
40°C 23%
38°C 17%
37°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
33°C or below
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
6%
38°C
17%
39°C
55%
40°C
23%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
1%
39°C 55%
40°C 23%
38°C 17%
37°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
33°C or below
$65 Vol.
1%
34°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$23 Vol.
1%
36°C
$15 Vol.
1%
37°C
$30 Vol.
6%
38°C
$226 Vol.
17%
39°C
$419 Vol.
55%
40°C
$164 Vol.
23%
41°C
$60 Vol.
1%
42°C
$65 Vol.
1%
43°C or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies have positioned Madrid for peak temperatures of 38–39°C on September 4, with AEMET and ensemble models showing afternoon maxima near 38°C under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s leading 39°C (55%) and 40°C (22.5%) outcomes, as current runs indicate limited diurnal cooling and no significant frontal passage. Historical September extremes near 38–39°C provide precedent, while model consensus remains tight ahead of the final 48-hour updates. Any late intensification of the ridge or slight wind shift could nudge readings toward 40°C, but stable conditions favor the 38–39°C range as the most probable resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,146End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies have positioned Madrid for peak temperatures of 38–39°C on September 4, with AEMET and ensemble models showing afternoon maxima near 38°C under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s leading 39°C (55%) and 40°C (22.5%) outcomes, as current runs indicate limited diurnal cooling and no significant frontal passage. Historical September extremes near 38–39°C provide precedent, while model consensus remains tight ahead of the final 48-hour updates. Any late intensification of the ridge or slight wind shift could nudge readings toward 40°C, but stable conditions favor the 38–39°C range as the most probable resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,146End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-pressure dominance and clear skies have positioned Madrid for peak temperatures of 38–39°C on September 4, with AEMET and ensemble models showing afternoon maxima near 38°C under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s leading 39°C (55%) and 40°C (22.5%) outcomes, as current runs indicate limited diurnal cooling and no significant frontal passage. Historical September extremes near 38–39°C provide precedent, while model consensus remains tight ahead of the final 48-hour updates. Any late intensification of the ridge or slight wind shift could nudge readings toward 40°C, but stable conditions favor the 38–39°C range as the most probable resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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