Current forecasts from GFS-based models and agency analogs indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 4 near 19–22°C, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.3°C while reflecting persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with some runs suggesting slightly warmer readings due to warmer advection from the south, creating genuine uncertainty around the 17–20°C threshold. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched implied probabilities near 44–50% for outcomes clustered around these values, incorporates this forecast range alongside historical variability where September 4 lows have reached as low as 9°C in past decades. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected within 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points that could shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
17°C or below 100%
25°C 89%
18°C 88%
19°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
100%
18°C
88%
19°C
88%
20°C
88%
21°C
88%
22°C
88%
23°C
88%
24°C
88%
25°C
89%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
49%
17°C or below 100%
25°C 89%
18°C 88%
19°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
18°C
$0 Vol.
88%
19°C
$0 Vol.
88%
20°C
$0 Vol.
88%
21°C
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
88%
23°C
$0 Vol.
88%
24°C
$0 Vol.
88%
25°C
$0 Vol.
89%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from GFS-based models and agency analogs indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 4 near 19–22°C, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.3°C while reflecting persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with some runs suggesting slightly warmer readings due to warmer advection from the south, creating genuine uncertainty around the 17–20°C threshold. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched implied probabilities near 44–50% for outcomes clustered around these values, incorporates this forecast range alongside historical variability where September 4 lows have reached as low as 9°C in past decades. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected within 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from GFS-based models and agency analogs indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 4 near 19–22°C, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.3°C while reflecting persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with some runs suggesting slightly warmer readings due to warmer advection from the south, creating genuine uncertainty around the 17–20°C threshold. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched implied probabilities near 44–50% for outcomes clustered around these values, incorporates this forecast range alongside historical variability where September 4 lows have reached as low as 9°C in past decades. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected within 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from GFS-based models and agency analogs indicate overnight lows in Madrid on September 4 near 19–22°C, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 17.3°C while reflecting persistent high pressure and clear skies that limit radiative cooling. Model consensus shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with some runs suggesting slightly warmer readings due to warmer advection from the south, creating genuine uncertainty around the 17–20°C threshold. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched implied probabilities near 44–50% for outcomes clustered around these values, incorporates this forecast range alongside historical variability where September 4 lows have reached as low as 9°C in past decades. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected within 48 hours represent the key upcoming data points that could shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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