**Current forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Madrid on September 3, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** High pressure and a warm air mass have sustained elevated overnight temperatures, limiting radiational cooling despite the dry conditions typical of early September. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs create tight uncertainty around the exact low, with some solutions favoring 19–20°C if boundary-layer mixing weakens slightly overnight. This aligns with the market's clustered probabilities near 19–21°C, while higher options reflect potential for warmer advection or measurement site differences. Traders are watching the next AEMET update and final model runs for any shift in the nocturnal temperature profile before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 3?
23°C 85%
26°C 85%
22°C 84%
25°C 84%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
18°C or below
28%
19°C
45%
20°C
45%
21°C
44%
22°C
84%
23°C
85%
24°C
2%
25°C
84%
26°C
85%
27°C
7%
28°C or higher
42%
23°C 85%
26°C 85%
22°C 84%
25°C 84%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
18°C or below
$34 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
45%
20°C
$0 Vol.
45%
21°C
$0 Vol.
44%
22°C
$5 Vol.
84%
23°C
$5 Vol.
85%
24°C
$5 Vol.
2%
25°C
$5 Vol.
84%
26°C
$5 Vol.
85%
27°C
$5 Vol.
7%
28°C or higher
$5 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Madrid on September 3, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** High pressure and a warm air mass have sustained elevated overnight temperatures, limiting radiational cooling despite the dry conditions typical of early September. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs create tight uncertainty around the exact low, with some solutions favoring 19–20°C if boundary-layer mixing weakens slightly overnight. This aligns with the market's clustered probabilities near 19–21°C, while higher options reflect potential for warmer advection or measurement site differences. Traders are watching the next AEMET update and final model runs for any shift in the nocturnal temperature profile before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$69End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Madrid on September 3, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** High pressure and a warm air mass have sustained elevated overnight temperatures, limiting radiational cooling despite the dry conditions typical of early September. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs create tight uncertainty around the exact low, with some solutions favoring 19–20°C if boundary-layer mixing weakens slightly overnight. This aligns with the market's clustered probabilities near 19–21°C, while higher options reflect potential for warmer advection or measurement site differences. Traders are watching the next AEMET update and final model runs for any shift in the nocturnal temperature profile before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$69End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate a minimum temperature near 21–22°C for Madrid on September 3, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** High pressure and a warm air mass have sustained elevated overnight temperatures, limiting radiational cooling despite the dry conditions typical of early September. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs create tight uncertainty around the exact low, with some solutions favoring 19–20°C if boundary-layer mixing weakens slightly overnight. This aligns with the market's clustered probabilities near 19–21°C, while higher options reflect potential for warmer advection or measurement site differences. Traders are watching the next AEMET update and final model runs for any shift in the nocturnal temperature profile before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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