Short-range ensemble forecasts from European and global models show Milan’s September 4 maximum temperature hovering near the 32–33 °C threshold, with the two outcomes trading within 1 percentage point because of modest spread in predicted 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. A ridge of high pressure favors warm advection from the southwest, yet subtle differences in cloud cover timing, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1 °C. Latest model runs indicate limited diurnal spread, keeping lower and higher outcomes below 10 % implied probability while underscoring the inherent uncertainty in resolving exact afternoon maxima two days ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 4?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 4?
32°C 42%
33°C 41%
31°C 10%
34°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
10%
32°C
42%
33°C
41%
34°C
10%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 42%
33°C 41%
31°C 10%
34°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
$116 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$141 Vol.
1%
31°C
$579 Vol.
10%
32°C
$1,173 Vol.
42%
33°C
$565 Vol.
41%
34°C
$324 Vol.
10%
35°C
$64 Vol.
1%
36°C
$0 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$417 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts from European and global models show Milan’s September 4 maximum temperature hovering near the 32–33 °C threshold, with the two outcomes trading within 1 percentage point because of modest spread in predicted 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. A ridge of high pressure favors warm advection from the southwest, yet subtle differences in cloud cover timing, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1 °C. Latest model runs indicate limited diurnal spread, keeping lower and higher outcomes below 10 % implied probability while underscoring the inherent uncertainty in resolving exact afternoon maxima two days ahead.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,749End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts from European and global models show Milan’s September 4 maximum temperature hovering near the 32–33 °C threshold, with the two outcomes trading within 1 percentage point because of modest spread in predicted 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. A ridge of high pressure favors warm advection from the southwest, yet subtle differences in cloud cover timing, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1 °C. Latest model runs indicate limited diurnal spread, keeping lower and higher outcomes below 10 % implied probability while underscoring the inherent uncertainty in resolving exact afternoon maxima two days ahead.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,749End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range ensemble forecasts from European and global models show Milan’s September 4 maximum temperature hovering near the 32–33 °C threshold, with the two outcomes trading within 1 percentage point because of modest spread in predicted 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. A ridge of high pressure favors warm advection from the southwest, yet subtle differences in cloud cover timing, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects can shift the peak by 1 °C. Latest model runs indicate limited diurnal spread, keeping lower and higher outcomes below 10 % implied probability while underscoring the inherent uncertainty in resolving exact afternoon maxima two days ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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