Current forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to clear skies and light northerly winds over Milan on September 3, 2026, with overnight radiative cooling likely producing a minimum in the 18–22°C range amid a stable high-pressure pattern. This setup favors the market’s leading 23°C-or-higher outcome at 34.5% while leaving room for slightly lower readings if dew-point depressions widen or urban heat-island effects prove weaker than expected. Historical September averages near 17°C provide context, yet the current warm advection keeps probabilities clustered around 17–23°C. Fresh model updates and local observations in the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles near the 17°C or 18–19°C buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 3?
23°C or higher 69%
13°C or below 59%
21°C 49%
17°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
13°C or below
59%
14°C
20%
15°C
3%
16°C
26%
17°C
29%
18°C
28%
19°C
26%
20°C
25%
21°C
49%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
69%
23°C or higher 69%
13°C or below 59%
21°C 49%
17°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
13°C or below
$5 Vol.
59%
14°C
$5 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
3%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$20 Vol.
49%
22°C
$5 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$5 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to clear skies and light northerly winds over Milan on September 3, 2026, with overnight radiative cooling likely producing a minimum in the 18–22°C range amid a stable high-pressure pattern. This setup favors the market’s leading 23°C-or-higher outcome at 34.5% while leaving room for slightly lower readings if dew-point depressions widen or urban heat-island effects prove weaker than expected. Historical September averages near 17°C provide context, yet the current warm advection keeps probabilities clustered around 17–23°C. Fresh model updates and local observations in the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles near the 17°C or 18–19°C buckets.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to clear skies and light northerly winds over Milan on September 3, 2026, with overnight radiative cooling likely producing a minimum in the 18–22°C range amid a stable high-pressure pattern. This setup favors the market’s leading 23°C-or-higher outcome at 34.5% while leaving room for slightly lower readings if dew-point depressions widen or urban heat-island effects prove weaker than expected. Historical September averages near 17°C provide context, yet the current warm advection keeps probabilities clustered around 17–23°C. Fresh model updates and local observations in the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles near the 17°C or 18–19°C buckets.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to clear skies and light northerly winds over Milan on September 3, 2026, with overnight radiative cooling likely producing a minimum in the 18–22°C range amid a stable high-pressure pattern. This setup favors the market’s leading 23°C-or-higher outcome at 34.5% while leaving room for slightly lower readings if dew-point depressions widen or urban heat-island effects prove weaker than expected. Historical September averages near 17°C provide context, yet the current warm advection keeps probabilities clustered around 17–23°C. Fresh model updates and local observations in the next 48 hours will determine whether the minimum settles near the 17°C or 18–19°C buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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