Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts point to a mild, changeable pattern for London on September 4 driven by southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that keeps maximum temperatures clustered near 22–24 °C. Model runs show a modest warm sector ahead of an approaching front, with daytime highs tempered by increasing winds and scattered showers that limit insolation. This narrow range underpins the near-even market-implied odds between 22 °C and 23 °C, while lower probabilities for 24 °C or above reflect the risk of thicker cloud or earlier rain suppressing peaks. Historical early-September climatology for the city centers around 20–21 °C, providing context for why traders assign only modest weight to warmer outliers. Updated model guidance and official Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on September 4?
Highest temperature in London on September 4?
23°C 35%
22°C 35%
21°C 15%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
4%
21°C
15%
22°C
35%
23°C
35%
24°C
11%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
2%
23°C 35%
22°C 35%
21°C 15%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
$80 Vol.
1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$5 Vol.
2%
20°C
$75 Vol.
4%
21°C
$139 Vol.
15%
22°C
$239 Vol.
35%
23°C
$223 Vol.
35%
24°C
$125 Vol.
11%
25°C
$80 Vol.
3%
26°C
$84 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts point to a mild, changeable pattern for London on September 4 driven by southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that keeps maximum temperatures clustered near 22–24 °C. Model runs show a modest warm sector ahead of an approaching front, with daytime highs tempered by increasing winds and scattered showers that limit insolation. This narrow range underpins the near-even market-implied odds between 22 °C and 23 °C, while lower probabilities for 24 °C or above reflect the risk of thicker cloud or earlier rain suppressing peaks. Historical early-September climatology for the city centers around 20–21 °C, providing context for why traders assign only modest weight to warmer outliers. Updated model guidance and official Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$1,050End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts point to a mild, changeable pattern for London on September 4 driven by southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that keeps maximum temperatures clustered near 22–24 °C. Model runs show a modest warm sector ahead of an approaching front, with daytime highs tempered by increasing winds and scattered showers that limit insolation. This narrow range underpins the near-even market-implied odds between 22 °C and 23 °C, while lower probabilities for 24 °C or above reflect the risk of thicker cloud or earlier rain suppressing peaks. Historical early-September climatology for the city centers around 20–21 °C, providing context for why traders assign only modest weight to warmer outliers. Updated model guidance and official Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,050End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and ensemble forecasts point to a mild, changeable pattern for London on September 4 driven by southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that keeps maximum temperatures clustered near 22–24 °C. Model runs show a modest warm sector ahead of an approaching front, with daytime highs tempered by increasing winds and scattered showers that limit insolation. This narrow range underpins the near-even market-implied odds between 22 °C and 23 °C, while lower probabilities for 24 °C or above reflect the risk of thicker cloud or earlier rain suppressing peaks. Historical early-September climatology for the city centers around 20–21 °C, providing context for why traders assign only modest weight to warmer outliers. Updated model guidance and official Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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