**Trader consensus centers on 16–17°C minima for London on September 4, reflecting ensemble model guidance showing a mild maritime air mass under westerly flow with limited nocturnal radiative cooling.** Forecasts from the Met Office and other sources indicate daytime maxima near 23–24°C on Friday, with overnight lows held up by cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds, and residual warmth from the preceding very warm spell (highs near 26–27°C on September 3). Hourly guidance shows temperatures falling only gradually into the mid-teens by late evening, while precipitation timing and any partial clearing introduce spread that caps probabilities for 15°C or lower. This setup aligns with early-autumn climatology under unsettled but not strongly advective conditions, with new model cycles and observational updates from the National Meteorological Service expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 4?
Lowest temperature in London on September 4?
17°C 36%
15°C 28%
16°C 27%
18°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
5%
13°C
14%
14°C
17%
15°C
28%
16°C
27%
17°C
42%
18°C
23%
19°C
10%
20°C
13%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
17°C 36%
15°C 28%
16°C 27%
18°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
5%
13°C
$0 Vol.
14%
14°C
$0 Vol.
17%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$10 Vol.
27%
17°C
$141 Vol.
42%
18°C
$57 Vol.
23%
19°C
$50 Vol.
10%
20°C
$50 Vol.
13%
21°C
$75 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 16–17°C minima for London on September 4, reflecting ensemble model guidance showing a mild maritime air mass under westerly flow with limited nocturnal radiative cooling.**
Forecasts from the Met Office and other sources indicate daytime maxima near 23–24°C on Friday, with overnight lows held up by cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds, and residual warmth from the preceding very warm spell (highs near 26–27°C on September 3). Hourly guidance shows temperatures falling only gradually into the mid-teens by late evening, while precipitation timing and any partial clearing introduce spread that caps probabilities for 15°C or lower.
This setup aligns with early-autumn climatology under unsettled but not strongly advective conditions, with new model cycles and observational updates from the National Meteorological Service expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$383End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 16–17°C minima for London on September 4, reflecting ensemble model guidance showing a mild maritime air mass under westerly flow with limited nocturnal radiative cooling.**
Forecasts from the Met Office and other sources indicate daytime maxima near 23–24°C on Friday, with overnight lows held up by cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds, and residual warmth from the preceding very warm spell (highs near 26–27°C on September 3). Hourly guidance shows temperatures falling only gradually into the mid-teens by late evening, while precipitation timing and any partial clearing introduce spread that caps probabilities for 15°C or lower.
This setup aligns with early-autumn climatology under unsettled but not strongly advective conditions, with new model cycles and observational updates from the National Meteorological Service expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$383End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 16–17°C minima for London on September 4, reflecting ensemble model guidance showing a mild maritime air mass under westerly flow with limited nocturnal radiative cooling.** Forecasts from the Met Office and other sources indicate daytime maxima near 23–24°C on Friday, with overnight lows held up by cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds, and residual warmth from the preceding very warm spell (highs near 26–27°C on September 3). Hourly guidance shows temperatures falling only gradually into the mid-teens by late evening, while precipitation timing and any partial clearing introduce spread that caps probabilities for 15°C or lower. This setup aligns with early-autumn climatology under unsettled but not strongly advective conditions, with new model cycles and observational updates from the National Meteorological Service expected to refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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