Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Dallas highs of 94-97°F on March 22, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on peak temperatures in this range amid a stubborn upper-level ridge over Texas. Southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture and warmth, combined with minimal cloud cover and strong solar insolation, underpin these projections, with urban heat island effects in Dallas adding 2-4°F locally. Differentiation among top bins stems from model spread: ECMWF slightly warmer (96-97°F) due to drier boundary layer, versus GFS cooler bias (94-95°F) from lingering mid-level clouds; 98°F+ odds reflect outlier hotter runs but fade against climatological March norms near 67°F average. Key watch: 18Z model updates today could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 22?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 22?
94-95°F 26%
96-97°F 26%
98°F or higher 21%
92-93°F 18%
$36,620 Vol.
$36,620 Vol.
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
26%
96-97°F
26%
98°F or higher
21%
94-95°F 26%
96-97°F 26%
98°F or higher 21%
92-93°F 18%
$36,620 Vol.
$36,620 Vol.
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
26%
96-97°F
26%
98°F or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Dallas highs of 94-97°F on March 22, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on peak temperatures in this range amid a stubborn upper-level ridge over Texas. Southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture and warmth, combined with minimal cloud cover and strong solar insolation, underpin these projections, with urban heat island effects in Dallas adding 2-4°F locally. Differentiation among top bins stems from model spread: ECMWF slightly warmer (96-97°F) due to drier boundary layer, versus GFS cooler bias (94-95°F) from lingering mid-level clouds; 98°F+ odds reflect outlier hotter runs but fade against climatological March norms near 67°F average. Key watch: 18Z model updates today could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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