Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the GFS and local meteorological services indicate mostly sunny conditions over Istanbul on September 1 under a stable high-pressure regime, with forecast maximum temperatures clustering around 28–30°C. This aligns with the early-September climatological normal of approximately 25–28°C for daily highs, as seasonal cooling begins following peak summer warmth. Northerly or northeasterly flow across the Sea of Marmara is expected to limit further warming while suppressing cloud cover and precipitation chances below 10%. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds favors 26–27°C outcomes, consistent with typical model consensus ranges and historical analogs for the date, though minor downward revisions in ensemble means over the past 48 hours have reinforced probabilities for values near or slightly below the forecast peak. Updated model runs and official briefings from regional agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will provide the key inputs for any further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 1?
26°C 48%
27°C 45%
25°C 22%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
22°C or below
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
7%
25°C
22%
26°C
48%
27°C
35%
28°C
10%
29°C
6%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 48%
27°C 45%
25°C 22%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
6%
24°C
$20 Vol.
7%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$23 Vol.
48%
27°C
$9 Vol.
35%
28°C
$0 Vol.
10%
29°C
$0 Vol.
6%
30°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the GFS and local meteorological services indicate mostly sunny conditions over Istanbul on September 1 under a stable high-pressure regime, with forecast maximum temperatures clustering around 28–30°C. This aligns with the early-September climatological normal of approximately 25–28°C for daily highs, as seasonal cooling begins following peak summer warmth. Northerly or northeasterly flow across the Sea of Marmara is expected to limit further warming while suppressing cloud cover and precipitation chances below 10%. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds favors 26–27°C outcomes, consistent with typical model consensus ranges and historical analogs for the date, though minor downward revisions in ensemble means over the past 48 hours have reinforced probabilities for values near or slightly below the forecast peak. Updated model runs and official briefings from regional agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will provide the key inputs for any further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$53End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the GFS and local meteorological services indicate mostly sunny conditions over Istanbul on September 1 under a stable high-pressure regime, with forecast maximum temperatures clustering around 28–30°C. This aligns with the early-September climatological normal of approximately 25–28°C for daily highs, as seasonal cooling begins following peak summer warmth. Northerly or northeasterly flow across the Sea of Marmara is expected to limit further warming while suppressing cloud cover and precipitation chances below 10%. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds favors 26–27°C outcomes, consistent with typical model consensus ranges and historical analogs for the date, though minor downward revisions in ensemble means over the past 48 hours have reinforced probabilities for values near or slightly below the forecast peak. Updated model runs and official briefings from regional agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will provide the key inputs for any further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$53End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources including the GFS and local meteorological services indicate mostly sunny conditions over Istanbul on September 1 under a stable high-pressure regime, with forecast maximum temperatures clustering around 28–30°C. This aligns with the early-September climatological normal of approximately 25–28°C for daily highs, as seasonal cooling begins following peak summer warmth. Northerly or northeasterly flow across the Sea of Marmara is expected to limit further warming while suppressing cloud cover and precipitation chances below 10%. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds favors 26–27°C outcomes, consistent with typical model consensus ranges and historical analogs for the date, though minor downward revisions in ensemble means over the past 48 hours have reinforced probabilities for values near or slightly below the forecast peak. Updated model runs and official briefings from regional agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will provide the key inputs for any further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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