Recent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over the eastern Mediterranean, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds expected to allow strong daytime heating in Istanbul on September 6. Ensemble guidance clusters maximum temperatures between 29–32 °C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels and lower probabilities assigned to outliers below 27 °C or above 33 °C. Typical September climatology shows daily maxima near 25 °C, but an ongoing warm anomaly under minimal cloud cover and dry soil conditions supports elevated readings. Minor differences among model runs arise from subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak insolation, introducing the uncertainty reflected in trader positioning ahead of official station observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
29°C 37%
31°C 36%
32°C 36%
28°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
25°C or below
5%
26°C
7%
27°C
14%
28°C
19%
29°C
37%
30°C
19%
31°C
36%
32°C
36%
33°C
5%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
4%
29°C 37%
31°C 36%
32°C 36%
28°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C
$20 Vol.
7%
27°C
$5 Vol.
14%
28°C
$5 Vol.
19%
29°C
$0 Vol.
37%
30°C
$78 Vol.
19%
31°C
$83 Vol.
36%
32°C
$0 Vol.
36%
33°C
$0 Vol.
5%
34°C
$0 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over the eastern Mediterranean, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds expected to allow strong daytime heating in Istanbul on September 6. Ensemble guidance clusters maximum temperatures between 29–32 °C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels and lower probabilities assigned to outliers below 27 °C or above 33 °C. Typical September climatology shows daily maxima near 25 °C, but an ongoing warm anomaly under minimal cloud cover and dry soil conditions supports elevated readings. Minor differences among model runs arise from subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak insolation, introducing the uncertainty reflected in trader positioning ahead of official station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$191End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over the eastern Mediterranean, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds expected to allow strong daytime heating in Istanbul on September 6. Ensemble guidance clusters maximum temperatures between 29–32 °C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels and lower probabilities assigned to outliers below 27 °C or above 33 °C. Typical September climatology shows daily maxima near 25 °C, but an ongoing warm anomaly under minimal cloud cover and dry soil conditions supports elevated readings. Minor differences among model runs arise from subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak insolation, introducing the uncertainty reflected in trader positioning ahead of official station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$191End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure regime over the eastern Mediterranean, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds expected to allow strong daytime heating in Istanbul on September 6. Ensemble guidance clusters maximum temperatures between 29–32 °C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels and lower probabilities assigned to outliers below 27 °C or above 33 °C. Typical September climatology shows daily maxima near 25 °C, but an ongoing warm anomaly under minimal cloud cover and dry soil conditions supports elevated readings. Minor differences among model runs arise from subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak insolation, introducing the uncertainty reflected in trader positioning ahead of official station observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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