**Recent official forecasts from sources including the Shandong Meteorological Observatory and international models (Yr.no, WeatherBug) project a daytime high of 28–30°C in Jinan on September 21, 2026, well above the 26°C threshold.** This places the market-implied probability of 86% for 26°C or higher in line with model consensus showing warm advection under a stable high-pressure ridge and southerly flow. Climatologically, late-September temperatures in the region often reach the upper 20s°C during transitional “autumn tiger” periods when large-scale circulation shifts from summer to winter patterns, reducing cloud cover and allowing greater solar heating. Current conditions feature light winds, low precipitation chances, and dew points supporting efficient daytime warming, with minimal model spread across runs. Lower-temperature outcomes (under 25°C) carry only single-digit implied odds because sustained cold-air intrusions or heavy cloud cover remain unlikely given the observed steering patterns and short-range guidance. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and agency briefings, which continue to favor the warmer scenario ahead of tomorrow’s maximum-temperature observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jinan on September 21?
Highest temperature in Jinan on September 21?
26°C or higher 86%
17°C 4%
18°C 4%
19°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
86%
26°C or higher 86%
17°C 4%
18°C 4%
19°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
4%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C or higher
$129 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from sources including the Shandong Meteorological Observatory and international models (Yr.no, WeatherBug) project a daytime high of 28–30°C in Jinan on September 21, 2026, well above the 26°C threshold.** This places the market-implied probability of 86% for 26°C or higher in line with model consensus showing warm advection under a stable high-pressure ridge and southerly flow.
Climatologically, late-September temperatures in the region often reach the upper 20s°C during transitional “autumn tiger” periods when large-scale circulation shifts from summer to winter patterns, reducing cloud cover and allowing greater solar heating. Current conditions feature light winds, low precipitation chances, and dew points supporting efficient daytime warming, with minimal model spread across runs. Lower-temperature outcomes (under 25°C) carry only single-digit implied odds because sustained cold-air intrusions or heavy cloud cover remain unlikely given the observed steering patterns and short-range guidance.
Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and agency briefings, which continue to favor the warmer scenario ahead of tomorrow’s maximum-temperature observation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$129End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from sources including the Shandong Meteorological Observatory and international models (Yr.no, WeatherBug) project a daytime high of 28–30°C in Jinan on September 21, 2026, well above the 26°C threshold.** This places the market-implied probability of 86% for 26°C or higher in line with model consensus showing warm advection under a stable high-pressure ridge and southerly flow.
Climatologically, late-September temperatures in the region often reach the upper 20s°C during transitional “autumn tiger” periods when large-scale circulation shifts from summer to winter patterns, reducing cloud cover and allowing greater solar heating. Current conditions feature light winds, low precipitation chances, and dew points supporting efficient daytime warming, with minimal model spread across runs. Lower-temperature outcomes (under 25°C) carry only single-digit implied odds because sustained cold-air intrusions or heavy cloud cover remain unlikely given the observed steering patterns and short-range guidance.
Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and agency briefings, which continue to favor the warmer scenario ahead of tomorrow’s maximum-temperature observation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$129End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts from sources including the Shandong Meteorological Observatory and international models (Yr.no, WeatherBug) project a daytime high of 28–30°C in Jinan on September 21, 2026, well above the 26°C threshold.** This places the market-implied probability of 86% for 26°C or higher in line with model consensus showing warm advection under a stable high-pressure ridge and southerly flow. Climatologically, late-September temperatures in the region often reach the upper 20s°C during transitional “autumn tiger” periods when large-scale circulation shifts from summer to winter patterns, reducing cloud cover and allowing greater solar heating. Current conditions feature light winds, low precipitation chances, and dew points supporting efficient daytime warming, with minimal model spread across runs. Lower-temperature outcomes (under 25°C) carry only single-digit implied odds because sustained cold-air intrusions or heavy cloud cover remain unlikely given the observed steering patterns and short-range guidance. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and agency briefings, which continue to favor the warmer scenario ahead of tomorrow’s maximum-temperature observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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