Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light northerly flow as the main driver keeping market-implied odds clustered tightly around 17–19 °C for Jinan’s September 20 minimum. Clear-sky periods allow greater longwave heat loss, potentially pushing readings toward 16 °C, while increased humidity and residual southerly moisture could limit the drop to 18–19 °C. Seasonal transition from summer warmth, combined with modest high-pressure influence, sets a baseline near historical mid-September lows, yet small differences in forecast wind speed or dew-point depression create the observed 46–48 % probabilities across these outcomes. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Jinan on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Jinan on September 20?
12°C or below 89%
17°C 48%
19°C 48%
16°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
12°C or below
89%
13°C
17%
14°C
17%
15°C
17%
16°C
46%
17°C
48%
18°C
48%
19°C
48%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
12°C or below 89%
17°C 48%
19°C 48%
16°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
12°C or below
$10 Vol.
89%
13°C
$10 Vol.
17%
14°C
$10 Vol.
17%
15°C
$10 Vol.
17%
16°C
$15 Vol.
46%
17°C
$0 Vol.
48%
18°C
$10 Vol.
48%
19°C
$0 Vol.
48%
20°C
$78 Vol.
1%
21°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$26 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light northerly flow as the main driver keeping market-implied odds clustered tightly around 17–19 °C for Jinan’s September 20 minimum. Clear-sky periods allow greater longwave heat loss, potentially pushing readings toward 16 °C, while increased humidity and residual southerly moisture could limit the drop to 18–19 °C. Seasonal transition from summer warmth, combined with modest high-pressure influence, sets a baseline near historical mid-September lows, yet small differences in forecast wind speed or dew-point depression create the observed 46–48 % probabilities across these outcomes. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$196End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light northerly flow as the main driver keeping market-implied odds clustered tightly around 17–19 °C for Jinan’s September 20 minimum. Clear-sky periods allow greater longwave heat loss, potentially pushing readings toward 16 °C, while increased humidity and residual southerly moisture could limit the drop to 18–19 °C. Seasonal transition from summer warmth, combined with modest high-pressure influence, sets a baseline near historical mid-September lows, yet small differences in forecast wind speed or dew-point depression create the observed 46–48 % probabilities across these outcomes. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$196End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light northerly flow as the main driver keeping market-implied odds clustered tightly around 17–19 °C for Jinan’s September 20 minimum. Clear-sky periods allow greater longwave heat loss, potentially pushing readings toward 16 °C, while increased humidity and residual southerly moisture could limit the drop to 18–19 °C. Seasonal transition from summer warmth, combined with modest high-pressure influence, sets a baseline near historical mid-September lows, yet small differences in forecast wind speed or dew-point depression create the observed 46–48 % probabilities across these outcomes. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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