Trader consensus on Polymarket has overwhelmingly converged to a 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 68-69°F in Los Angeles on April 2, backed by official National Weather Service observations at Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX), the standard reference station, which recorded a peak of 68°F amid persistent marine stratus clouds and gusty westerly winds exceeding 20 mph under active Wind Advisories. These conditions suppressed daytime heating by enhancing low-level moisture advection from the Pacific, aligning precisely with short-range forecast model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs issued 24-48 hours prior that projected highs in the upper 60s due to strong onshore flow. Historical April baselines average 70°F, but climatological analogs to similar synoptic patterns—troughing aloft with coastal pressure gradients—support this outcome. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-observation data revision from NOAA archives, such as sensor recalibration, though such adjustments are infrequent for settled daily maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on April 2?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on April 2?
68-69°F 100.0%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$100,209 Vol.
$100,209 Vol.
68-69°F
100%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 100.0%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$100,209 Vol.
$100,209 Vol.
68-69°F
100%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has overwhelmingly converged to a 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 68-69°F in Los Angeles on April 2, backed by official National Weather Service observations at Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX), the standard reference station, which recorded a peak of 68°F amid persistent marine stratus clouds and gusty westerly winds exceeding 20 mph under active Wind Advisories. These conditions suppressed daytime heating by enhancing low-level moisture advection from the Pacific, aligning precisely with short-range forecast model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs issued 24-48 hours prior that projected highs in the upper 60s due to strong onshore flow. Historical April baselines average 70°F, but climatological analogs to similar synoptic patterns—troughing aloft with coastal pressure gradients—support this outcome. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-observation data revision from NOAA archives, such as sensor recalibration, though such adjustments are infrequent for settled daily maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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