Trader consensus centers on 29–31°C outcomes for Manila’s June 30 maximum, reflecting PAGASA short-range guidance of 25–33°C amid variable convective activity. The developing El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +1.7°C, favors reduced rainfall and elevated daytime heating relative to neutral baselines, while the southwest monsoon onset introduces cloud bursts that can suppress peaks by several degrees. Urban heat-island effects and humidity further modulate observed maxima, with model spread on timing of showers creating the tight clustering around 30°C. Updated PAGASA and global ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive any sharp shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on June 30?
Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?
29°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$153,670 Vol.
$153,670 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$153,670 Vol.
$153,670 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
26°C or below
$40,940 Vol.
No
27°C
$42,858 Vol.
No
28°C
$30,342 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,182 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$6,095 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,150 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,928 Vol.
No
33°C
$5,803 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,231 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,846 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$5,293 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 29–31°C outcomes for Manila’s June 30 maximum, reflecting PAGASA short-range guidance of 25–33°C amid variable convective activity. The developing El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +1.7°C, favors reduced rainfall and elevated daytime heating relative to neutral baselines, while the southwest monsoon onset introduces cloud bursts that can suppress peaks by several degrees. Urban heat-island effects and humidity further modulate observed maxima, with model spread on timing of showers creating the tight clustering around 30°C. Updated PAGASA and global ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive any sharp shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 28, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$153,670End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 28, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 29–31°C outcomes for Manila’s June 30 maximum, reflecting PAGASA short-range guidance of 25–33°C amid variable convective activity. The developing El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +1.7°C, favors reduced rainfall and elevated daytime heating relative to neutral baselines, while the southwest monsoon onset introduces cloud bursts that can suppress peaks by several degrees. Urban heat-island effects and humidity further modulate observed maxima, with model spread on timing of showers creating the tight clustering around 30°C. Updated PAGASA and global ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive any sharp shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$153,670End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 28, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus centers on 29–31°C outcomes for Manila’s June 30 maximum, reflecting PAGASA short-range guidance of 25–33°C amid variable convective activity. The developing El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +1.7°C, favors reduced rainfall and elevated daytime heating relative to neutral baselines, while the southwest monsoon onset introduces cloud bursts that can suppress peaks by several degrees. Urban heat-island effects and humidity further modulate observed maxima, with model spread on timing of showers creating the tight clustering around 30°C. Updated PAGASA and global ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive any sharp shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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