PAGASA's regional forecast issued at 9:00 AM today projects a maximum temperature of 36°C across Metro Manila under light to moderate easterly winds and partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, aligning trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning reflects the agency's model consensus during the dry season's peak, when high pressure dominates and typical May highs average 33–36°C based on historical PAGASA records from Quezon City and Port Area stations. Strong solar heating amid low humidity supports the 36°C cap, though realistic challenges include prolonged cloud cover suppressing peaks to 35°C or brief clear skies enabling a 37°C spike before evening cooling. Final resolution awaits official end-of-day observations from PAGASA monitoring sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 3?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 3?
36°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$27,370 Vol.
$27,370 Vol.
May 3, 2026
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$27,370 Vol.
$27,370 Vol.
May 3, 2026
29°C or below
$1,612 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,114 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,187 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,566 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,660 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,902 Vol.
No
35°C
$3,655 Vol.
No
36°C
$4,222 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$3,293 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,566 Vol.
No
39°C or higher
$1,594 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's regional forecast issued at 9:00 AM today projects a maximum temperature of 36°C across Metro Manila under light to moderate easterly winds and partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, aligning trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning reflects the agency's model consensus during the dry season's peak, when high pressure dominates and typical May highs average 33–36°C based on historical PAGASA records from Quezon City and Port Area stations. Strong solar heating amid low humidity supports the 36°C cap, though realistic challenges include prolonged cloud cover suppressing peaks to 35°C or brief clear skies enabling a 37°C spike before evening cooling. Final resolution awaits official end-of-day observations from PAGASA monitoring sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$27,370End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's regional forecast issued at 9:00 AM today projects a maximum temperature of 36°C across Metro Manila under light to moderate easterly winds and partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, aligning trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning reflects the agency's model consensus during the dry season's peak, when high pressure dominates and typical May highs average 33–36°C based on historical PAGASA records from Quezon City and Port Area stations. Strong solar heating amid low humidity supports the 36°C cap, though realistic challenges include prolonged cloud cover suppressing peaks to 35°C or brief clear skies enabling a 37°C spike before evening cooling. Final resolution awaits official end-of-day observations from PAGASA monitoring sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$27,370End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
PAGASA's regional forecast issued at 9:00 AM today projects a maximum temperature of 36°C across Metro Manila under light to moderate easterly winds and partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, aligning trader consensus at nearly 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning reflects the agency's model consensus during the dry season's peak, when high pressure dominates and typical May highs average 33–36°C based on historical PAGASA records from Quezon City and Port Area stations. Strong solar heating amid low humidity supports the 36°C cap, though realistic challenges include prolonged cloud cover suppressing peaks to 35°C or brief clear skies enabling a 37°C spike before evening cooling. Final resolution awaits official end-of-day observations from PAGASA monitoring sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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