Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 30, driven by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest forecasts from 10:00h today, predicting maxima of 31–34°C amid an ongoing heat wave fueled by persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels, which suppresses cloud formation and maximizes solar insolation at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Observations at Observatorio Meteorológico de Tacubaya already show morning minima near 17°C, with clear skies transitioning to partly cloudy conditions and no rain expected. This aligns with recent days' patterns of 30–32°C peaks at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's resolution source. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon convective showers or gusty winds introducing cooler air masses, though model consensus deems these low-likelihood given current stability. Final airport readings will confirm by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 30?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 30?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$10,998 Vol.
$10,998 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$10,998 Vol.
$10,998 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
16°C or below
$1,319 Vol.
No
17°C
$410 Vol.
No
18°C
$650 Vol.
No
19°C
$410 Vol.
No
20°C
$410 Vol.
No
21°C
$425 Vol.
No
22°C
$430 Vol.
No
23°C
$427 Vol.
No
24°C
$927 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,873 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$2,717 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 30, driven by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest forecasts from 10:00h today, predicting maxima of 31–34°C amid an ongoing heat wave fueled by persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels, which suppresses cloud formation and maximizes solar insolation at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Observations at Observatorio Meteorológico de Tacubaya already show morning minima near 17°C, with clear skies transitioning to partly cloudy conditions and no rain expected. This aligns with recent days' patterns of 30–32°C peaks at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's resolution source. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon convective showers or gusty winds introducing cooler air masses, though model consensus deems these low-likelihood given current stability. Final airport readings will confirm by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$10,998End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 30, driven by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest forecasts from 10:00h today, predicting maxima of 31–34°C amid an ongoing heat wave fueled by persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels, which suppresses cloud formation and maximizes solar insolation at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Observations at Observatorio Meteorológico de Tacubaya already show morning minima near 17°C, with clear skies transitioning to partly cloudy conditions and no rain expected. This aligns with recent days' patterns of 30–32°C peaks at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's resolution source. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon convective showers or gusty winds introducing cooler air masses, though model consensus deems these low-likelihood given current stability. Final airport readings will confirm by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,998End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 30, driven by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest forecasts from 10:00h today, predicting maxima of 31–34°C amid an ongoing heat wave fueled by persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels, which suppresses cloud formation and maximizes solar insolation at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Observations at Observatorio Meteorológico de Tacubaya already show morning minima near 17°C, with clear skies transitioning to partly cloudy conditions and no rain expected. This aligns with recent days' patterns of 30–32°C peaks at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's resolution source. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon convective showers or gusty winds introducing cooler air masses, though model consensus deems these low-likelihood given current stability. Final airport readings will confirm by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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