Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from the Met Office, indicate a daytime high of 24°C for Mexico City on August 9, aligning with the market's leading 40.5% implied probability for that outcome. This reflects typical August climatology of 23–25°C highs at the city's high elevation, where afternoon convection and cloud cover often moderate peaks, though an emerging El Niño event is contributing to slightly elevated baseline warmth across the region. Recent model runs as of August 8 show limited variability, with only modest upside risk to 25°C if insolation increases, while showers could cap temperatures nearer 23°C. Traders are weighting these short-range forecasts heavily given the proximity to resolution and historical model skill for the plateau.