Mexico City's high elevation around 2,240 meters and ongoing rainy season create a moderate temperature regime, with August daytime highs typically averaging 22–24°C amid frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that limits solar heating. Current forecasts from models indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions on August 21, supporting highs near 25–26°C as the consensus range while suppressing extremes through evaporative cooling from showers. Trader-implied probabilities, led by 26°C at 54.5%, reflect this climatological baseline plus short-term guidance showing no strong high-pressure ridge or clear skies that would push readings to 27°C or above. Recent data releases emphasize typical monsoon patterns rather than anomalous warmth, keeping lower outcomes like 24°C or below as lower-probability tails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 21?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 21?
26°C 55%
25°C 28%
27°C 15%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
28%
26°C
55%
27°C
15%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 55%
25°C 28%
27°C 15%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
20°C or below
$189 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$172 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$152 Vol.
1%
23°C
$142 Vol.
2%
24°C
$122 Vol.
4%
25°C
$370 Vol.
28%
26°C
$1,644 Vol.
55%
27°C
$190 Vol.
15%
28°C
$138 Vol.
2%
29°C
$123 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mexico City's high elevation around 2,240 meters and ongoing rainy season create a moderate temperature regime, with August daytime highs typically averaging 22–24°C amid frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that limits solar heating. Current forecasts from models indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions on August 21, supporting highs near 25–26°C as the consensus range while suppressing extremes through evaporative cooling from showers. Trader-implied probabilities, led by 26°C at 54.5%, reflect this climatological baseline plus short-term guidance showing no strong high-pressure ridge or clear skies that would push readings to 27°C or above. Recent data releases emphasize typical monsoon patterns rather than anomalous warmth, keeping lower outcomes like 24°C or below as lower-probability tails.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$3,365End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mexico City's high elevation around 2,240 meters and ongoing rainy season create a moderate temperature regime, with August daytime highs typically averaging 22–24°C amid frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that limits solar heating. Current forecasts from models indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions on August 21, supporting highs near 25–26°C as the consensus range while suppressing extremes through evaporative cooling from showers. Trader-implied probabilities, led by 26°C at 54.5%, reflect this climatological baseline plus short-term guidance showing no strong high-pressure ridge or clear skies that would push readings to 27°C or above. Recent data releases emphasize typical monsoon patterns rather than anomalous warmth, keeping lower outcomes like 24°C or below as lower-probability tails.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,365End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico City's high elevation around 2,240 meters and ongoing rainy season create a moderate temperature regime, with August daytime highs typically averaging 22–24°C amid frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that limits solar heating. Current forecasts from models indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions on August 21, supporting highs near 25–26°C as the consensus range while suppressing extremes through evaporative cooling from showers. Trader-implied probabilities, led by 26°C at 54.5%, reflect this climatological baseline plus short-term guidance showing no strong high-pressure ridge or clear skies that would push readings to 27°C or above. Recent data releases emphasize typical monsoon patterns rather than anomalous warmth, keeping lower outcomes like 24°C or below as lower-probability tails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions