Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project Miami's highest temperature on March 26 at 81-83°F, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus between 82-83°F (34.5% implied probability) and 80-81°F (31.0%), with lower odds for deviations. Above-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures near 78°F bolster potential for mid-80s peaks under weak ridging aloft, but early sea breeze penetration and isolated showers could cap it nearer 80°F by differentiating sea-level pressure gradients and boundary layer mixing. Historical late-March norms hover at 81°F, yet recent 00Z runs show slight warming trends versus prior cooler biases, with NWS updates at 8 AM ET pivotal for resolution amid model divergence on convective timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on March 26?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 26?
82-83°F 36%
80-81°F 31%
84-85°F 17%
78-79°F 10%
$16,016 Vol.
$16,016 Vol.
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
82-83°F 36%
80-81°F 31%
84-85°F 17%
78-79°F 10%
$16,016 Vol.
$16,016 Vol.
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project Miami's highest temperature on March 26 at 81-83°F, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus between 82-83°F (34.5% implied probability) and 80-81°F (31.0%), with lower odds for deviations. Above-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures near 78°F bolster potential for mid-80s peaks under weak ridging aloft, but early sea breeze penetration and isolated showers could cap it nearer 80°F by differentiating sea-level pressure gradients and boundary layer mixing. Historical late-March norms hover at 81°F, yet recent 00Z runs show slight warming trends versus prior cooler biases, with NWS updates at 8 AM ET pivotal for resolution amid model divergence on convective timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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