Official Roshydromet station observations confirm Moscow's highest temperature on April 20 peaked at 5°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid northerly winds, low pressure around 745 mmHg, and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. Hourly data from Gismeteo and meteoinfo.ru show afternoon readings steady at 3-5°C, with the 18:00 measurement at 4.8°C and no exceedance as daylight fades. This positioning below April's climatological average of 7-9°C stems from a persistent cool air mass over Central Russia. Realistic challenges are slim—only unexpected downslope warming or data revisions could shift it—but forecast models indicate stable conditions through evening, with final daily reports imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on April 20?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 20?
5°C 100.0%
-2°C or below <1%
-1°C <1%
0°C <1%
$74,940 Vol.
$74,940 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
-2°C or below
No
-1°C
No
0°C
No
1°C
No
2°C
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
Yes
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C or higher
No
5°C 100.0%
-2°C or below <1%
-1°C <1%
0°C <1%
$74,940 Vol.
$74,940 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
-2°C or below
$1,734 Vol.
No
-1°C
$4,199 Vol.
No
0°C
$1,785 Vol.
No
1°C
$1,907 Vol.
No
2°C
$3,660 Vol.
No
3°C
$9,624 Vol.
No
4°C
$16,574 Vol.
No
5°C
$13,384 Vol.
Yes
6°C
$8,683 Vol.
No
7°C
$6,711 Vol.
No
8°C or higher
$6,679 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Roshydromet station observations confirm Moscow's highest temperature on April 20 peaked at 5°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid northerly winds, low pressure around 745 mmHg, and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. Hourly data from Gismeteo and meteoinfo.ru show afternoon readings steady at 3-5°C, with the 18:00 measurement at 4.8°C and no exceedance as daylight fades. This positioning below April's climatological average of 7-9°C stems from a persistent cool air mass over Central Russia. Realistic challenges are slim—only unexpected downslope warming or data revisions could shift it—but forecast models indicate stable conditions through evening, with final daily reports imminent.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$74,940End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Roshydromet station observations confirm Moscow's highest temperature on April 20 peaked at 5°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid northerly winds, low pressure around 745 mmHg, and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. Hourly data from Gismeteo and meteoinfo.ru show afternoon readings steady at 3-5°C, with the 18:00 measurement at 4.8°C and no exceedance as daylight fades. This positioning below April's climatological average of 7-9°C stems from a persistent cool air mass over Central Russia. Realistic challenges are slim—only unexpected downslope warming or data revisions could shift it—but forecast models indicate stable conditions through evening, with final daily reports imminent.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$74,940End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official Roshydromet station observations confirm Moscow's highest temperature on April 20 peaked at 5°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid northerly winds, low pressure around 745 mmHg, and partial cloud cover limiting solar heating. Hourly data from Gismeteo and meteoinfo.ru show afternoon readings steady at 3-5°C, with the 18:00 measurement at 4.8°C and no exceedance as daylight fades. This positioning below April's climatological average of 7-9°C stems from a persistent cool air mass over Central Russia. Realistic challenges are slim—only unexpected downslope warming or data revisions could shift it—but forecast models indicate stable conditions through evening, with final daily reports imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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