Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and major model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Central Park highs of 54-57°F on April 19 amid an approaching upper-level trough bringing increased cloudiness and a 20-30% chance of showers. Recent 00Z and 06Z runs show slight divergence: cooler GFS members emphasize limited insolation from overcast skies and cool mid-level air, favoring 54-55°F, while ECMWF leans marginally warmer at 56-57°F if afternoon mixing enhances surface heating before any sea breeze onset. This follows unseasonably warm highs near 80°F on April 16-17, now shifting to seasonal norms around 60°F historically. New 12Z forecasts expected midday April 18 could refine odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 19?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 19?
54-55°F 31%
56-57°F 27%
58-59°F 17%
52-53°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
47°F or below
1%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
13%
54-55°F
31%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
17%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
1%
66°F or higher
<1%
54-55°F 31%
56-57°F 27%
58-59°F 17%
52-53°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
47°F or below
$207 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$307 Vol.
3%
50-51°F
$171 Vol.
2%
52-53°F
$219 Vol.
13%
54-55°F
$138 Vol.
31%
56-57°F
$233 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$333 Vol.
17%
60-61°F
$138 Vol.
5%
62-63°F
$551 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$633 Vol.
1%
66°F or higher
$271 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and major model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Central Park highs of 54-57°F on April 19 amid an approaching upper-level trough bringing increased cloudiness and a 20-30% chance of showers. Recent 00Z and 06Z runs show slight divergence: cooler GFS members emphasize limited insolation from overcast skies and cool mid-level air, favoring 54-55°F, while ECMWF leans marginally warmer at 56-57°F if afternoon mixing enhances surface heating before any sea breeze onset. This follows unseasonably warm highs near 80°F on April 16-17, now shifting to seasonal norms around 60°F historically. New 12Z forecasts expected midday April 18 could refine odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$3,197End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and major model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Central Park highs of 54-57°F on April 19 amid an approaching upper-level trough bringing increased cloudiness and a 20-30% chance of showers. Recent 00Z and 06Z runs show slight divergence: cooler GFS members emphasize limited insolation from overcast skies and cool mid-level air, favoring 54-55°F, while ECMWF leans marginally warmer at 56-57°F if afternoon mixing enhances surface heating before any sea breeze onset. This follows unseasonably warm highs near 80°F on April 16-17, now shifting to seasonal norms around 60°F historically. New 12Z forecasts expected midday April 18 could refine odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,197End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and major model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Central Park highs of 54-57°F on April 19 amid an approaching upper-level trough bringing increased cloudiness and a 20-30% chance of showers. Recent 00Z and 06Z runs show slight divergence: cooler GFS members emphasize limited insolation from overcast skies and cool mid-level air, favoring 54-55°F, while ECMWF leans marginally warmer at 56-57°F if afternoon mixing enhances surface heating before any sea breeze onset. This follows unseasonably warm highs near 80°F on April 16-17, now shifting to seasonal norms around 60°F historically. New 12Z forecasts expected midday April 18 could refine odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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