Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover over São Paulo have suppressed daytime heating ahead of September 15, keeping recent highs near 15–17°C despite the spring transition. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on a modest rebound to 17–20°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds and reduced precipitation, reflecting limited solar insolation and evaporative cooling from lingering moisture. This places 20°C as the market leader at 30.5% implied probability, followed closely by 19°C, consistent with the narrow range of ensemble guidance and historical September variability around a 23°C seasonal mean. Updated model runs and any clearing trends will be key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 15?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 15?
20°C 28%
19°C 23%
21°C 18%
18°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
5%
18°C
15%
19°C
23%
20°C
28%
21°C
18%
22°C
7%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 28%
19°C 23%
21°C 18%
18°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
15°C or below
$273 Vol.
1%
16°C
$486 Vol.
1%
17°C
$151 Vol.
5%
18°C
$149 Vol.
15%
19°C
$34 Vol.
23%
20°C
$191 Vol.
28%
21°C
$382 Vol.
18%
22°C
$86 Vol.
7%
23°C
$3 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C or higher
$210 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover over São Paulo have suppressed daytime heating ahead of September 15, keeping recent highs near 15–17°C despite the spring transition. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on a modest rebound to 17–20°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds and reduced precipitation, reflecting limited solar insolation and evaporative cooling from lingering moisture. This places 20°C as the market leader at 30.5% implied probability, followed closely by 19°C, consistent with the narrow range of ensemble guidance and historical September variability around a 23°C seasonal mean. Updated model runs and any clearing trends will be key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,960End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover over São Paulo have suppressed daytime heating ahead of September 15, keeping recent highs near 15–17°C despite the spring transition. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on a modest rebound to 17–20°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds and reduced precipitation, reflecting limited solar insolation and evaporative cooling from lingering moisture. This places 20°C as the market leader at 30.5% implied probability, followed closely by 19°C, consistent with the narrow range of ensemble guidance and historical September variability around a 23°C seasonal mean. Updated model runs and any clearing trends will be key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,960End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover over São Paulo have suppressed daytime heating ahead of September 15, keeping recent highs near 15–17°C despite the spring transition. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on a modest rebound to 17–20°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds and reduced precipitation, reflecting limited solar insolation and evaporative cooling from lingering moisture. This places 20°C as the market leader at 30.5% implied probability, followed closely by 19°C, consistent with the narrow range of ensemble guidance and historical September variability around a 23°C seasonal mean. Updated model runs and any clearing trends will be key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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