Recent model runs from agencies like the Met Office and local Brazilian meteorological services point to nighttime lows near 13–14 °C in São Paulo on September 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and southerly flow associated with a lingering frontal boundary that has kept the region cooler than the September climatological average of about 15 °C. This setup limits radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 85–95 %, which narrows the range of possible minimum temperatures. Trader consensus remains fragmented across the listed outcomes because small differences in forecast timing of any clearing or wind shift could shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C, and historical September cold outbreaks show that brief intrusions of drier polar air occasionally produce sharper drops. Updated guidance expected from regional numerical weather prediction centers over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution of implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 15?
20°C or higher 47%
10°C or below 46%
11°C 39%
12°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
10°C or below
46%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
25%
14°C
26%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C or higher
47%
20°C or higher 47%
10°C or below 46%
11°C 39%
12°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
46%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from agencies like the Met Office and local Brazilian meteorological services point to nighttime lows near 13–14 °C in São Paulo on September 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and southerly flow associated with a lingering frontal boundary that has kept the region cooler than the September climatological average of about 15 °C. This setup limits radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 85–95 %, which narrows the range of possible minimum temperatures. Trader consensus remains fragmented across the listed outcomes because small differences in forecast timing of any clearing or wind shift could shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C, and historical September cold outbreaks show that brief intrusions of drier polar air occasionally produce sharper drops. Updated guidance expected from regional numerical weather prediction centers over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution of implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from agencies like the Met Office and local Brazilian meteorological services point to nighttime lows near 13–14 °C in São Paulo on September 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and southerly flow associated with a lingering frontal boundary that has kept the region cooler than the September climatological average of about 15 °C. This setup limits radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 85–95 %, which narrows the range of possible minimum temperatures. Trader consensus remains fragmented across the listed outcomes because small differences in forecast timing of any clearing or wind shift could shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C, and historical September cold outbreaks show that brief intrusions of drier polar air occasionally produce sharper drops. Updated guidance expected from regional numerical weather prediction centers over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution of implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from agencies like the Met Office and local Brazilian meteorological services point to nighttime lows near 13–14 °C in São Paulo on September 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and southerly flow associated with a lingering frontal boundary that has kept the region cooler than the September climatological average of about 15 °C. This setup limits radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 85–95 %, which narrows the range of possible minimum temperatures. Trader consensus remains fragmented across the listed outcomes because small differences in forecast timing of any clearing or wind shift could shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C, and historical September cold outbreaks show that brief intrusions of drier polar air occasionally produce sharper drops. Updated guidance expected from regional numerical weather prediction centers over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution of implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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