Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations from Seoul's official station confirm the highest temperature on May 3, 2026, peaked at 15°C around midday, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome on Polymarket. Persistent cloud cover from a passing frontal system, combined with high humidity (80-90%) and light easterly winds, suppressed daytime heating despite typical early May climatology averaging 20-22°C highs. Light rain and overcast skies capped solar insolation, aligning with short-range KMA forecasts issued that morning. While data finalization via Wunderground at Incheon International Airport station could theoretically prompt minor revisions—ignored post-resolution per market rules—such discrepancies are rare, solidifying the strong scientific backing for 15°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 3?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 3?
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$340,922 Vol.
$340,922 Vol.
May 3, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$340,922 Vol.
$340,922 Vol.
May 3, 2026
9°C or below
$5,832 Vol.
No
10°C
$4,219 Vol.
No
11°C
$4,038 Vol.
No
12°C
$7,141 Vol.
No
13°C
$41,646 Vol.
No
14°C
$75,738 Vol.
No
15°C
$55,864 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$57,592 Vol.
No
17°C
$34,925 Vol.
No
18°C
$24,085 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$29,842 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations from Seoul's official station confirm the highest temperature on May 3, 2026, peaked at 15°C around midday, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome on Polymarket. Persistent cloud cover from a passing frontal system, combined with high humidity (80-90%) and light easterly winds, suppressed daytime heating despite typical early May climatology averaging 20-22°C highs. Light rain and overcast skies capped solar insolation, aligning with short-range KMA forecasts issued that morning. While data finalization via Wunderground at Incheon International Airport station could theoretically prompt minor revisions—ignored post-resolution per market rules—such discrepancies are rare, solidifying the strong scientific backing for 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ET
Volume
$340,922End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations from Seoul's official station confirm the highest temperature on May 3, 2026, peaked at 15°C around midday, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome on Polymarket. Persistent cloud cover from a passing frontal system, combined with high humidity (80-90%) and light easterly winds, suppressed daytime heating despite typical early May climatology averaging 20-22°C highs. Light rain and overcast skies capped solar insolation, aligning with short-range KMA forecasts issued that morning. While data finalization via Wunderground at Incheon International Airport station could theoretically prompt minor revisions—ignored post-resolution per market rules—such discrepancies are rare, solidifying the strong scientific backing for 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$340,922End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations from Seoul's official station confirm the highest temperature on May 3, 2026, peaked at 15°C around midday, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for this outcome on Polymarket. Persistent cloud cover from a passing frontal system, combined with high humidity (80-90%) and light easterly winds, suppressed daytime heating despite typical early May climatology averaging 20-22°C highs. Light rain and overcast skies capped solar insolation, aligning with short-range KMA forecasts issued that morning. While data finalization via Wunderground at Incheon International Airport station could theoretically prompt minor revisions—ignored post-resolution per market rules—such discrepancies are rare, solidifying the strong scientific backing for 15°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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