Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration converge on a peak temperature of 25-26°C in Shenzhen on April 4, driving trader consensus toward these outcomes amid partly cloudy conditions and moderate onshore flow from the South China Sea. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily highs average 25°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—rising from March's cooler baselines—tempered by typical spring humidity around 80% and scattered showers that cap intensification. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover timing: fuller overcast could limit to 24-25°C, while clearer skies enable 27°C; sea breeze strength adds 1°C variability. Official hourly observations resolve the market tomorrow, with uncertainty high given 1-2°C forecast error typical at 24-hour lead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
25°C 32%
26°C 31%
27°C 17%
24°C 12%
$11,589 Vol.
$11,589 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
12%
25°C
32%
26°C
31%
27°C
17%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
3%
25°C 32%
26°C 31%
27°C 17%
24°C 12%
$11,589 Vol.
$11,589 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
19°C or below
$2,244 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,265 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,187 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,373 Vol.
2%
23°C
$908 Vol.
3%
24°C
$592 Vol.
12%
25°C
$442 Vol.
32%
26°C
$699 Vol.
31%
27°C
$554 Vol.
17%
28°C
$1,065 Vol.
11%
29°C or higher
$1,557 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration converge on a peak temperature of 25-26°C in Shenzhen on April 4, driving trader consensus toward these outcomes amid partly cloudy conditions and moderate onshore flow from the South China Sea. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily highs average 25°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—rising from March's cooler baselines—tempered by typical spring humidity around 80% and scattered showers that cap intensification. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover timing: fuller overcast could limit to 24-25°C, while clearer skies enable 27°C; sea breeze strength adds 1°C variability. Official hourly observations resolve the market tomorrow, with uncertainty high given 1-2°C forecast error typical at 24-hour lead.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$11,589End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration converge on a peak temperature of 25-26°C in Shenzhen on April 4, driving trader consensus toward these outcomes amid partly cloudy conditions and moderate onshore flow from the South China Sea. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily highs average 25°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—rising from March's cooler baselines—tempered by typical spring humidity around 80% and scattered showers that cap intensification. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover timing: fuller overcast could limit to 24-25°C, while clearer skies enable 27°C; sea breeze strength adds 1°C variability. Official hourly observations resolve the market tomorrow, with uncertainty high given 1-2°C forecast error typical at 24-hour lead.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,589End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration converge on a peak temperature of 25-26°C in Shenzhen on April 4, driving trader consensus toward these outcomes amid partly cloudy conditions and moderate onshore flow from the South China Sea. This aligns with early April climatology, where daily highs average 25°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—rising from March's cooler baselines—tempered by typical spring humidity around 80% and scattered showers that cap intensification. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover timing: fuller overcast could limit to 24-25°C, while clearer skies enable 27°C; sea breeze strength adds 1°C variability. Official hourly observations resolve the market tomorrow, with uncertainty high given 1-2°C forecast error typical at 24-hour lead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions