**Trader consensus centers on 30–32°C as the most probable high for Shenzhen on September 6, reflecting current numerical weather prediction guidance and the city’s late-summer climatology.** September mean daily maxima average 31–32°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, with frequent afternoon convection and monsoon moisture producing cloud cover and showers that moderate peak temperatures. Recent model runs indicate moderate rain on the 6th, which tends to cap daytime heating near or slightly below the seasonal norm while sea-breeze circulation adds coastal cooling. Historical September extremes range from the mid-20s to mid-30s, but the narrow clustering of market-implied odds around 31°C highlights genuine forecast uncertainty in rain timing, cloud persistence, and local urban heat-island effects that can shift the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and observational trends through early September will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 6?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 6?
31°C 35%
30°C 27%
29°C 19%
32°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
24°C or below
4%
25°C
4%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
19%
30°C
27%
31°C
35%
32°C
17%
33°C
7%
34°C or higher
1%
31°C 35%
30°C 27%
29°C 19%
32°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$53 Vol.
4%
29°C
$148 Vol.
19%
30°C
$164 Vol.
27%
31°C
$61 Vol.
35%
32°C
$23 Vol.
17%
33°C
$76 Vol.
7%
34°C or higher
$100 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 30–32°C as the most probable high for Shenzhen on September 6, reflecting current numerical weather prediction guidance and the city’s late-summer climatology.** September mean daily maxima average 31–32°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, with frequent afternoon convection and monsoon moisture producing cloud cover and showers that moderate peak temperatures. Recent model runs indicate moderate rain on the 6th, which tends to cap daytime heating near or slightly below the seasonal norm while sea-breeze circulation adds coastal cooling. Historical September extremes range from the mid-20s to mid-30s, but the narrow clustering of market-implied odds around 31°C highlights genuine forecast uncertainty in rain timing, cloud persistence, and local urban heat-island effects that can shift the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and observational trends through early September will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$629End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 30–32°C as the most probable high for Shenzhen on September 6, reflecting current numerical weather prediction guidance and the city’s late-summer climatology.** September mean daily maxima average 31–32°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, with frequent afternoon convection and monsoon moisture producing cloud cover and showers that moderate peak temperatures. Recent model runs indicate moderate rain on the 6th, which tends to cap daytime heating near or slightly below the seasonal norm while sea-breeze circulation adds coastal cooling. Historical September extremes range from the mid-20s to mid-30s, but the narrow clustering of market-implied odds around 31°C highlights genuine forecast uncertainty in rain timing, cloud persistence, and local urban heat-island effects that can shift the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and observational trends through early September will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$629End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 30–32°C as the most probable high for Shenzhen on September 6, reflecting current numerical weather prediction guidance and the city’s late-summer climatology.** September mean daily maxima average 31–32°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, with frequent afternoon convection and monsoon moisture producing cloud cover and showers that moderate peak temperatures. Recent model runs indicate moderate rain on the 6th, which tends to cap daytime heating near or slightly below the seasonal norm while sea-breeze circulation adds coastal cooling. Historical September extremes range from the mid-20s to mid-30s, but the narrow clustering of market-implied odds around 31°C highlights genuine forecast uncertainty in rain timing, cloud persistence, and local urban heat-island effects that can shift the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and observational trends through early September will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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