Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for a 35°C high in Tel Aviv on April 16, reflecting the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peak afternoon temperatures of 34–37°C amid a sharpening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. This unseasonal heat surge follows weekend rains and recent sharp rises—April 14 highs neared 30°C per IMS observations—with easterly hamsin winds advecting dry Saharan air, clear skies enhancing solar heating, and subsidence suppressing clouds. Coastal moderation from sea breezes adds uncertainty, potentially capping coastal stations like Ben Gurion Airport at 34–36°C against historical April averages of 24°C; final hourly NOAA data will resolve, with IMS updates expected today.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 16?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 16?
35°C 34%
36°C 25%
34°C 19%
37°C or higher 6.2%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
6%
34°C
19%
35°C
34%
36°C
25%
37°C or higher
6%
35°C 34%
36°C 25%
34°C 19%
37°C or higher 6.2%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
27°C or below
$476 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$347 Vol.
1%
29°C
$225 Vol.
1%
30°C
$320 Vol.
1%
31°C
$63 Vol.
2%
32°C
$302 Vol.
4%
33°C
$178 Vol.
6%
34°C
$83 Vol.
19%
35°C
$262 Vol.
34%
36°C
$87 Vol.
25%
37°C or higher
$217 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for a 35°C high in Tel Aviv on April 16, reflecting the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peak afternoon temperatures of 34–37°C amid a sharpening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. This unseasonal heat surge follows weekend rains and recent sharp rises—April 14 highs neared 30°C per IMS observations—with easterly hamsin winds advecting dry Saharan air, clear skies enhancing solar heating, and subsidence suppressing clouds. Coastal moderation from sea breezes adds uncertainty, potentially capping coastal stations like Ben Gurion Airport at 34–36°C against historical April averages of 24°C; final hourly NOAA data will resolve, with IMS updates expected today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,542End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for a 35°C high in Tel Aviv on April 16, reflecting the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peak afternoon temperatures of 34–37°C amid a sharpening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. This unseasonal heat surge follows weekend rains and recent sharp rises—April 14 highs neared 30°C per IMS observations—with easterly hamsin winds advecting dry Saharan air, clear skies enhancing solar heating, and subsidence suppressing clouds. Coastal moderation from sea breezes adds uncertainty, potentially capping coastal stations like Ben Gurion Airport at 34–36°C against historical April averages of 24°C; final hourly NOAA data will resolve, with IMS updates expected today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,542End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for a 35°C high in Tel Aviv on April 16, reflecting the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peak afternoon temperatures of 34–37°C amid a sharpening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. This unseasonal heat surge follows weekend rains and recent sharp rises—April 14 highs neared 30°C per IMS observations—with easterly hamsin winds advecting dry Saharan air, clear skies enhancing solar heating, and subsidence suppressing clouds. Coastal moderation from sea breezes adds uncertainty, potentially capping coastal stations like Ben Gurion Airport at 34–36°C against historical April averages of 24°C; final hourly NOAA data will resolve, with IMS updates expected today.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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