Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 16–18°C for Tel Aviv's March 26 high temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing mean projections of 16.5–17.5°C amid persistent northerly winds advecting cooler Mediterranean air masses. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, reveal a narrowing spread—ECMWF leaning slightly cooler at 16°C due to increased low-level cloudiness suppressing daytime heating, while GFS edges toward 17–18°C with drier conditions allowing more solar insolation. Historical March climatology averages 19°C, but this week's anomalous cold snap, verified by Israel Meteorological Service observations, differentiates outcomes; sea breezes and coastal station measurements at Ben Gurion could trim peaks by 1–2°C, heightening uncertainty as resolution hinges on afternoon maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
17°C 37%
16°C 34%
18°C 17%
15°C 7%
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
7%
16°C
34%
17°C
40%
18°C
17%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 37%
16°C 34%
18°C 17%
15°C 7%
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
7%
16°C
34%
17°C
40%
18°C
17%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 16–18°C for Tel Aviv's March 26 high temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing mean projections of 16.5–17.5°C amid persistent northerly winds advecting cooler Mediterranean air masses. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, reveal a narrowing spread—ECMWF leaning slightly cooler at 16°C due to increased low-level cloudiness suppressing daytime heating, while GFS edges toward 17–18°C with drier conditions allowing more solar insolation. Historical March climatology averages 19°C, but this week's anomalous cold snap, verified by Israel Meteorological Service observations, differentiates outcomes; sea breezes and coastal station measurements at Ben Gurion could trim peaks by 1–2°C, heightening uncertainty as resolution hinges on afternoon maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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