Trader consensus assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 29°C high temperature at Ben Gurion International Airport on May 2, backed by the latest Israel Meteorological Service guidance and strong agreement across ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peak daytime heating under a dominant high-pressure ridge. This sharp diurnal jump from yesterday's observed 24°C maximum—per NOAA data—stems from clear skies, light winds, and intense spring solar insolation exceeding early May climatological norms of 26–27°C. Current METAR observations at 26°C with low humidity (30%) and minimal cloud cover reinforce this trajectory. Realistic challenges include afternoon sea breeze intensification capping peaks at 28°C or unexpected mid-level clouds, with final NOAA hourly readings through late evening determining resolution amid short-range forecast uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 2?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 2?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$58,413 Vol.
$58,413 Vol.
May 2, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$58,413 Vol.
$58,413 Vol.
May 2, 2026
21°C or below
$1,122 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,384 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,636 Vol.
No
24°C
$7,230 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,092 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,200 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,581 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,079 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,863 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$8,450 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$7,776 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 29°C high temperature at Ben Gurion International Airport on May 2, backed by the latest Israel Meteorological Service guidance and strong agreement across ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peak daytime heating under a dominant high-pressure ridge. This sharp diurnal jump from yesterday's observed 24°C maximum—per NOAA data—stems from clear skies, light winds, and intense spring solar insolation exceeding early May climatological norms of 26–27°C. Current METAR observations at 26°C with low humidity (30%) and minimal cloud cover reinforce this trajectory. Realistic challenges include afternoon sea breeze intensification capping peaks at 28°C or unexpected mid-level clouds, with final NOAA hourly readings through late evening determining resolution amid short-range forecast uncertainties.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$58,413End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 29°C high temperature at Ben Gurion International Airport on May 2, backed by the latest Israel Meteorological Service guidance and strong agreement across ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peak daytime heating under a dominant high-pressure ridge. This sharp diurnal jump from yesterday's observed 24°C maximum—per NOAA data—stems from clear skies, light winds, and intense spring solar insolation exceeding early May climatological norms of 26–27°C. Current METAR observations at 26°C with low humidity (30%) and minimal cloud cover reinforce this trajectory. Realistic challenges include afternoon sea breeze intensification capping peaks at 28°C or unexpected mid-level clouds, with final NOAA hourly readings through late evening determining resolution amid short-range forecast uncertainties.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,413End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 29°C high temperature at Ben Gurion International Airport on May 2, backed by the latest Israel Meteorological Service guidance and strong agreement across ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peak daytime heating under a dominant high-pressure ridge. This sharp diurnal jump from yesterday's observed 24°C maximum—per NOAA data—stems from clear skies, light winds, and intense spring solar insolation exceeding early May climatological norms of 26–27°C. Current METAR observations at 26°C with low humidity (30%) and minimal cloud cover reinforce this trajectory. Realistic challenges include afternoon sea breeze intensification capping peaks at 28°C or unexpected mid-level clouds, with final NOAA hourly readings through late evening determining resolution amid short-range forecast uncertainties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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