Trader consensus on the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4 centers on 31°C at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from regional meteorological services that project peak readings near that threshold under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of Mediterranean summer. Supporting outcomes at 30°C and 32°C capture remaining spread in forecast guidance, with minimal signals for extremes above 34°C or below 29°C. Historical July baselines around 30–32°C, combined with stable sea-surface temperatures and limited synoptic forcing for intensification, anchor these probabilities. Updated model consensus expected within 48 hours could refine the distribution ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4?
31°C 100%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$45,352 Vol.
$45,352 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
31°C 100%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$45,352 Vol.
$45,352 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
27°C or below
$2,191 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,889 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,984 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,736 Vol.
No
31°C
$10,694 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$5,212 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,310 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,161 Vol.
No
35°C
$2,433 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,331 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$1,410 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4 centers on 31°C at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from regional meteorological services that project peak readings near that threshold under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of Mediterranean summer. Supporting outcomes at 30°C and 32°C capture remaining spread in forecast guidance, with minimal signals for extremes above 34°C or below 29°C. Historical July baselines around 30–32°C, combined with stable sea-surface temperatures and limited synoptic forcing for intensification, anchor these probabilities. Updated model consensus expected within 48 hours could refine the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$45,352End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4 centers on 31°C at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from regional meteorological services that project peak readings near that threshold under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of Mediterranean summer. Supporting outcomes at 30°C and 32°C capture remaining spread in forecast guidance, with minimal signals for extremes above 34°C or below 29°C. Historical July baselines around 30–32°C, combined with stable sea-surface temperatures and limited synoptic forcing for intensification, anchor these probabilities. Updated model consensus expected within 48 hours could refine the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,352End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 4 centers on 31°C at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from regional meteorological services that project peak readings near that threshold under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of Mediterranean summer. Supporting outcomes at 30°C and 32°C capture remaining spread in forecast guidance, with minimal signals for extremes above 34°C or below 29°C. Historical July baselines around 30–32°C, combined with stable sea-surface temperatures and limited synoptic forcing for intensification, anchor these probabilities. Updated model consensus expected within 48 hours could refine the distribution ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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