Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 18?
21°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$107,616 Vol.
$107,616 Vol.
Apr 18, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$107,616 Vol.
$107,616 Vol.
Apr 18, 2026
13°C or below
$2,664 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,437 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,580 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,779 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,640 Vol.
No
18°C
$5,039 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,464 Vol.
No
20°C
$14,266 Vol.
No
21°C
$32,225 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$17,066 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$19,457 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$107,616End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$107,616End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions