Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 23°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations showing a midday peak of 23°C under partly sunny conditions, aligning closely with the daily normal maximum of 22.2°C. Increasing cloud cover ("sunny later cloudy" per JMA forecast) and the declining solar angle in the late diurnal cycle have prevented further warming, with current readings around 15–21°C and sunset approaching at approximately 18:30 JST. This positioning reflects real-time monitoring data from Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects remain subdued amid mild southerly flows. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and residual solar heating to nudge above 24°C before resolution, though model ensembles and hourly trends indicate low likelihood as the day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28?
23°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$118,334 Vol.
$118,334 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$118,334 Vol.
$118,334 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
15°C or below
$1,110 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,442 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,685 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,443 Vol.
No
19°C
$6,938 Vol.
No
20°C
$13,406 Vol.
No
21°C
$19,426 Vol.
No
22°C
$11,922 Vol.
No
23°C
$24,718 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$15,986 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$15,259 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 23°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations showing a midday peak of 23°C under partly sunny conditions, aligning closely with the daily normal maximum of 22.2°C. Increasing cloud cover ("sunny later cloudy" per JMA forecast) and the declining solar angle in the late diurnal cycle have prevented further warming, with current readings around 15–21°C and sunset approaching at approximately 18:30 JST. This positioning reflects real-time monitoring data from Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects remain subdued amid mild southerly flows. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and residual solar heating to nudge above 24°C before resolution, though model ensembles and hourly trends indicate low likelihood as the day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$118,334End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 23°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations showing a midday peak of 23°C under partly sunny conditions, aligning closely with the daily normal maximum of 22.2°C. Increasing cloud cover ("sunny later cloudy" per JMA forecast) and the declining solar angle in the late diurnal cycle have prevented further warming, with current readings around 15–21°C and sunset approaching at approximately 18:30 JST. This positioning reflects real-time monitoring data from Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects remain subdued amid mild southerly flows. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and residual solar heating to nudge above 24°C before resolution, though model ensembles and hourly trends indicate low likelihood as the day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$118,334End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 23°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations showing a midday peak of 23°C under partly sunny conditions, aligning closely with the daily normal maximum of 22.2°C. Increasing cloud cover ("sunny later cloudy" per JMA forecast) and the declining solar angle in the late diurnal cycle have prevented further warming, with current readings around 15–21°C and sunset approaching at approximately 18:30 JST. This positioning reflects real-time monitoring data from Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects remain subdued amid mild southerly flows. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and residual solar heating to nudge above 24°C before resolution, though model ensembles and hourly trends indicate low likelihood as the day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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