Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 11-13°C maxima for Toronto on March 26, reflecting consensus in the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model ensembles averaging 11.8°C under a mild southerly flow pattern. This setup, influenced by a weakening ridge over the eastern U.S. and retreating polar vortex remnants, favors partial cloud cover limiting peaks to the low teens, differentiating 12°C (22%) from 11°C (19%) via subtle timing of diurnal heating versus marine layer incursions from Lake Ontario. GFS holds slight upside bias toward 13°C (17%) with 40% ensemble spread, but historical March baselines near 7°C underscore the +5°C anomaly from fading El Niño effects; monitor 00Z updates for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on March 26?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 26?
12°C 22.4%
11°C 18%
13°C 17%
14°C 11.5%
$18,828 Vol.
$18,828 Vol.
8°C or below
4%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
18%
12°C
22%
13°C
17%
14°C
12%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
12°C 22.4%
11°C 18%
13°C 17%
14°C 11.5%
$18,828 Vol.
$18,828 Vol.
8°C or below
4%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
18%
12°C
22%
13°C
17%
14°C
12%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 11-13°C maxima for Toronto on March 26, reflecting consensus in the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model ensembles averaging 11.8°C under a mild southerly flow pattern. This setup, influenced by a weakening ridge over the eastern U.S. and retreating polar vortex remnants, favors partial cloud cover limiting peaks to the low teens, differentiating 12°C (22%) from 11°C (19%) via subtle timing of diurnal heating versus marine layer incursions from Lake Ontario. GFS holds slight upside bias toward 13°C (17%) with 40% ensemble spread, but historical March baselines near 7°C underscore the +5°C anomaly from fading El Niño effects; monitor 00Z updates for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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