Forecast consensus from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models places Warsaw's August 31 maximum near 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of light showers and southwesterly flow. A weakening high-pressure ridge yields to a mild Atlantic front, increasing cloud cover and limiting insolation while preventing strong warming. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon peaks most likely between 24–27°C depending on exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing. Historical late-August averages near 22–24°C provide context, but current steering patterns and dew-point trends support the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 25–26°C outcomes. Updated model runs and IMGW guidance through the weekend will refine the final resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
26°C 35%
25°C 31%
27°C or higher 23%
24°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
3%
24°C
10%
25°C
31%
26°C
35%
27°C or higher
23%
26°C 35%
25°C 31%
27°C or higher 23%
24°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
10%
25°C
$91 Vol.
31%
26°C
$14 Vol.
35%
27°C or higher
$217 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models places Warsaw's August 31 maximum near 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of light showers and southwesterly flow. A weakening high-pressure ridge yields to a mild Atlantic front, increasing cloud cover and limiting insolation while preventing strong warming. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon peaks most likely between 24–27°C depending on exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing. Historical late-August averages near 22–24°C provide context, but current steering patterns and dew-point trends support the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 25–26°C outcomes. Updated model runs and IMGW guidance through the weekend will refine the final resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$328End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models places Warsaw's August 31 maximum near 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of light showers and southwesterly flow. A weakening high-pressure ridge yields to a mild Atlantic front, increasing cloud cover and limiting insolation while preventing strong warming. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon peaks most likely between 24–27°C depending on exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing. Historical late-August averages near 22–24°C provide context, but current steering patterns and dew-point trends support the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 25–26°C outcomes. Updated model runs and IMGW guidance through the weekend will refine the final resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$328End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models places Warsaw's August 31 maximum near 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of light showers and southwesterly flow. A weakening high-pressure ridge yields to a mild Atlantic front, increasing cloud cover and limiting insolation while preventing strong warming. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon peaks most likely between 24–27°C depending on exact timing of any showers and boundary-layer mixing. Historical late-August averages near 22–24°C provide context, but current steering patterns and dew-point trends support the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 25–26°C outcomes. Updated model runs and IMGW guidance through the weekend will refine the final resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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