Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport station, the market's resolution source managed by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), recorded a peak temperature of 20°C on May 1, 2026, aligning precisely with the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome. This measurement reflects predominantly clear skies and light winds that allowed daytime highs to reach typical early-May levels, consistent with climatological averages of 18–20°C for Warsaw during this period under neutral atmospheric patterns. Pre-event forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models had converged on 19–21°C maxima, bolstering trader consensus. Realistic challenges would require a post-audit revision uncovering an overlooked higher reading from hourly METAR reports—highly improbable given standardized instrumentation and real-time verification—potentially shifting odds only if discrepancies exceed 2°C. Final IMGW data release expected within 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 1?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 1?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$81,836 Vol.
$81,836 Vol.
May 1, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$81,836 Vol.
$81,836 Vol.
May 1, 2026
15°C or below
$2,707 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,544 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,649 Vol.
No
18°C
$7,953 Vol.
No
19°C
$12,506 Vol.
No
20°C
$14,127 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$10,951 Vol.
No
22°C
$10,058 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,098 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,386 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$4,857 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport station, the market's resolution source managed by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), recorded a peak temperature of 20°C on May 1, 2026, aligning precisely with the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome. This measurement reflects predominantly clear skies and light winds that allowed daytime highs to reach typical early-May levels, consistent with climatological averages of 18–20°C for Warsaw during this period under neutral atmospheric patterns. Pre-event forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models had converged on 19–21°C maxima, bolstering trader consensus. Realistic challenges would require a post-audit revision uncovering an overlooked higher reading from hourly METAR reports—highly improbable given standardized instrumentation and real-time verification—potentially shifting odds only if discrepancies exceed 2°C. Final IMGW data release expected within 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
Volume
$81,836End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport station, the market's resolution source managed by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), recorded a peak temperature of 20°C on May 1, 2026, aligning precisely with the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome. This measurement reflects predominantly clear skies and light winds that allowed daytime highs to reach typical early-May levels, consistent with climatological averages of 18–20°C for Warsaw during this period under neutral atmospheric patterns. Pre-event forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models had converged on 19–21°C maxima, bolstering trader consensus. Realistic challenges would require a post-audit revision uncovering an overlooked higher reading from hourly METAR reports—highly improbable given standardized instrumentation and real-time verification—potentially shifting odds only if discrepancies exceed 2°C. Final IMGW data release expected within 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$81,836End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport station, the market's resolution source managed by Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), recorded a peak temperature of 20°C on May 1, 2026, aligning precisely with the 100% market-implied probability for this outcome. This measurement reflects predominantly clear skies and light winds that allowed daytime highs to reach typical early-May levels, consistent with climatological averages of 18–20°C for Warsaw during this period under neutral atmospheric patterns. Pre-event forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models had converged on 19–21°C maxima, bolstering trader consensus. Realistic challenges would require a post-audit revision uncovering an overlooked higher reading from hourly METAR reports—highly improbable given standardized instrumentation and real-time verification—potentially shifting odds only if discrepancies exceed 2°C. Final IMGW data release expected within 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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